European elections in 2024

[S019]

Austria: FPO places first, SPO second, OVP third, OVP enters into coalition talks with both FPO and SPO, but chooses FPO
Belgium: Current government but replace Open Vld with N-VA, VB places first
Croatia: HDZ minority government
EU: EPP largest party, EPP-RE-S+D coalition continues
Finland: Stubb v Haavisto runoff, Stubb wins runoff
Germany:
Brandenburg: SPD/CDU/Green coalition continues led by SPD, AfD places first
Saxony: CDU/SPD/Green coalition led by CDU continues (with external support from Linke if needed), AfD places first
Thuringia: AfD places first, hard to predict but in terms of likelihood (imo): 1. new elections, 2. BSW-Linke-SPD coalition, 3. BSW-AfD coalition
Iceland: No idea, incumbent said he won't run again
Lithuania: LSDP places first, forms coalition with LVZS adding DP if needed for a majority
Macedonia: VMRO-DPNE-led coalition (possibly with BDI since they seem to join every government)
Portugal: AD places first, but AD+IL is short of a majority, either new elections (more likely) or Santos breaks his promise to not "support" a PSD government (less likely)
Romania: PSD places first, continues coalition with PNL
UK: Labour majority, Labour gets around 450 seats, the LDs around 30-50
Ireland: SF places first, SF-FF coalition is formed (left wing coalition is unlikely as Labour won't agree and Greens aren't especially likely to agree either)
Netherlands: Wilders minority cabinet of PVV-BBB, eventually NSC or VVD bring it down when the polls indicate it's opportune to do so