What would a victory look like for Rutte here?
VVD and CDA could keep working together, and they could fairly easily add BBB, SGP, and JA21. In recent polls, those five parties would have between 63 and 68 seats.
Parties to the right of VVD are polling at between 18 and 21 seats, but FvD is unreasonable and BVNL is tiny. A six-party coalition with PVV would be the only reasonable majority. VVD and CDA have worked with PVV before, but it didn't go over too well. Yet that would be the only possible coalition unless the center-right has a massive surge.
I don't think the VVD would call a snap election to play second fiddle which would probably mean no coalition with the BBB unless the VVD vote rose significantly higher than where it is right now. As for a victory, I think it would mean placing ahead of at least one of BBB or PvdA/GL, which would give him a feasible path to form a government. Ideally, he would want to place ahead of both, but who knows if that will happen. My opinion is that calling an election now is a mistake as I don't think the BBB is going to maintain its current heights forever.
To the best of my knowledge, this would be the first ALDE-ID coalition on a national level. The Finns Party was in ID, but they moved to ECR before the election.
It has happened in Estonia when the Estonian Centre Party (ALDE) was in coalition with EKRE (ID) from 2019 to 2021.
