Which of these seats are Republicans most likely to win in 2024?

[S019]

Ohio

[S019]

In order (if Cruz runs):

1. Florida
2. Texas
3. Montanna
4. Ohio
5.

In order (if Cruz does not run):
1. Texas
2. Florida
3. Montana
4. Ohio
5.

This overrates incumbency way too much. Brown is not going survive Ohio voting for the Republican by 10+ points.

[S019]

In order (if Cruz runs):

1. Florida
2. Texas
3. Montanna
4. Ohio

In order (if Cruz does not run):
1. Texas
2. Florida
3. Montana
4. Ohio

This overrates incumbency way too much. Brown is not going survive Ohio voting for the Republican by 10+ points.

I said I did not think any of them was going to lose, but I stand by this statement because incumbency does limit the ability to select a worse candidate and the lack of a GOP incumbent still provides the uncertainty of the R candidate, i.e, a Todd Akin situation.

Even Gym Jordan would probably beat Sherrod Brown in Ohio in 2024, the state has zoomed far to the right, Brown is going to get nowhere near the amount of crossover he has in the past, in 2012 (last time he was on a presidential ticket), he only did like 3 points better than Obama. I expect something similar with Republicans winning OH presidentially by double digits and Brown losing by mid to high single digits. FL and TX will vote left of OH and in a polarized era, that matters more than stuff like "incumbency" or "candidate quality."