2020 Texas Redistricting thread

[S019]

I attempted a TX map on 2020 data and found it harder than expected, I was also basically forced to cede the two new seats to Democrats. Lastly, I ended up with a map where I am 100% certain that several seats will flip before 2030, though I think all of them should survive 2022, maybe TX-23 doesn't

Anyways:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/18b8f365-ba5f-4902-8dc4-cf84c83d7857

Why?

Simplest answer is population growth and Democratic trends, both the DFW metro and Austin are growing in population and trending D and each is currently supporting several swing seats. Adding New Democratic sinks (technically 2 in DFW, since I converted 32 to a D sink) helps to shore up most of the seats, but again trends in the TX metro are very ominous, and every time I've drawn a TX map I end up with several seats vulnerable to trends, because simply the state is trending blue, Democrats have a geography advantage, and Republicans hold way more seats than they should. Eventually, there's a point where overcoming trends and geography becomes too much.

[S019]

I attempted a TX map on 2020 data and found it harder than expected, I was also basically forced to cede the two new seats to Democrats. Lastly, I ended up with a map where I am 100% certain that several seats will flip before 2030, though I think all of them should survive 2022, maybe TX-23 doesn't

Anyways:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/18b8f365-ba5f-4902-8dc4-cf84c83d7857

Why?

Simplest answer is population growth and Democratic trends, both the DFW metro and Austin are growing in population and trending D and each is currently supporting several swing seats. Adding New Democratic sinks (technically 2 in DFW, since I converted 32 to a D sink) helps to shore up most of the seats, but again trends in the TX metro are very ominous, and every time I've drawn a TX map I end up with several seats vulnerable to trends, because simply the state is trending blue, Democrats have a geography advantage, and Republicans hold way more seats than they should. Eventually, there's a point where overcoming trends and geography becomes too much.

Dealing with North Dallas feels absolutely impossible; you either need an absolutely insane pizza or a very risky map that cedes a 4th seat to Ds.

True, but I guess this is good news for us, it seems like the Republicans can only do so much, and I have my suspicions that several incumbents will not be happy about being randomly spaghettied into unfamiliar territory. If we could net seats out of the Texas redraw that would be huge, as it means Republicans did not net seats out of the largest state that they control.

[S019]

I attempted a TX map on 2020 data and found it harder than expected, I was also basically forced to cede the two new seats to Democrats. Lastly, I ended up with a map where I am 100% certain that several seats will flip before 2030, though I think all of them should survive 2022, maybe TX-23 doesn't

Anyways:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/18b8f365-ba5f-4902-8dc4-cf84c83d7857

You obviously didn't try hard enough then. You can easily do 26-12.

Simple spaghettimanders are not realistic, I try to keep at least a significant amount of each incumbent's seat in the district. 26-12 may be doable now, but it could fall apart in 2024, 2026, etc.

[S019]

I attempted a TX map on 2020 data and found it harder than expected, I was also basically forced to cede the two new seats to Democrats. Lastly, I ended up with a map where I am 100% certain that several seats will flip before 2030, though I think all of them should survive 2022, maybe TX-23 doesn't

Anyways:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/18b8f365-ba5f-4902-8dc4-cf84c83d7857

You obviously didn't try hard enough then. You can easily do 26-12.

I would say a 26-12 is difficult on 2020 numbers, at least one that isn't blatantly illegal and one that would survive at least most of the decade.

A 26-12 requires Austin to only have 1 sink while Houston gets 3, and it's really hard to pull off both since they both rely on rural areas between them to dilute suburbs outside the sinks.

I remember Torie made a relatively "clean"26-12 a while back but even then Houston has 2 marginal seats in the West that could easily fall.

Well I took a lot at RRH this afternoon to see what some of these 26-12 maps entail and they classify Trump+14 seats in the Metroplex as Safe R, so yeah they're dummymanders.

[S019]

I attempted a TX map on 2020 data and found it harder than expected, I was also basically forced to cede the two new seats to Democrats. Lastly, I ended up with a map where I am 100% certain that several seats will flip before 2030, though I think all of them should survive 2022, maybe TX-23 doesn't

Anyways:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/18b8f365-ba5f-4902-8dc4-cf84c83d7857

You obviously didn't try hard enough then. You can easily do 26-12.

I would say a 26-12 is difficult on 2020 numbers, at least one that isn't blatantly illegal and one that would survive at least most of the decade.

A 26-12 requires Austin to only have 1 sink while Houston gets 3, and it's really hard to pull off both since they both rely on rural areas between them to dilute suburbs outside the sinks.

I remember Torie made a relatively "clean"26-12 a while back but even then Houston has 2 marginal seats in the West that could easily fall.

Well I took a lot at RRH this afternoon to see what some of these 26-12 maps entail and they classify Trump+14 seats in the Metroplex as Safe R, so yeah they're dummymanders.

Trump+14 would hold for at least 3/5 elections, so I don't think it's that simple.

TX-7 was Romney+21.3 in 2012,  Clinton won it in 2016.   I don't think Trump+14 is as strong as you think in a fast growing state like Texas.

Trump+14 in 2020 numbers? Absolutely. Unless you think another 2012>2016 swing is in on the cards in 2024.
For various reasons I doubt such a swing can be repeated again in recent memory.

I was referring particularly to the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex, where you saw smaller, but still sizable swings from 2016>2020, swings that absolutely could be replicated.

[S019]

No one's explained to me why a 90% Hispanic pack in Hidalgo/Cameron is suddenly allowed under the VRA? If it was, why haven't the Texas GOP done it before?

Yeah this is something I don't get it either. I thought that the fajitas had to be drawn specifically because this isn't allowed. In any case, you can draw a Republican fajita (split Hidalgo between 2 districts rather than 3) without creating a Hispanic megapack on the US/Mexico border, and that'd be a much safer approach from the Republicans

[S019]

https://twitter.com/evanasmith/status/1435367198952931328

Governor Abbott has announced a redistricting special session towards the end of the month.

[S019]

https://twitter.com/evanasmith/status/1435367198952931328
Governor Abbott has announced a redistricting special session towards the end of the month.

What is the absolute bare minimum number of seats they can draw for democrats? 8-30?

Well, you need at least two Democrats in Dallas, probably three, and at least one of those is VRA mandated (whether or not 33 is mandated is more iffy), for Houston, you need three VRA seats, and maybe a fourth Democratic sink, in the south you need three Hispanic seats, at least one of which would likely end up as Democratic, you need a VRA seat in El Paso, you need a VRA seat in San Antonio, and at least one sink, preferably 2 on the San Antonio-Austin corridor. The bare minimum seems to be 29-9, but that looks like a pipe dream and would probably involve many seats that turn into instant dummymanders. 27-11 or 26-12 are realistically the max that they'd go, and even that could be iffy. My personal guess is somewhere between 26-12 and 23-15.

[S019]

Will the new map project as many incumbent Republicans as possible, or will it be even uglier and unnecessarily draw out incumbents?

My guess is that they try to as much as in reason but ultimately partisan gerrymandering goals will prevail and may cause double or even triple bunking, especially in places where the GOP will have to "pizza" like crazy.

Does this look like a good mock-up? My best effort for a moment at a realistic 2022 map

I honestly get serious dummymander vibes from this map, there are multiple Trump+14 2020 seats in the Dallas area and a Trump+6 one in the Houston area, also McCaul and Roy seem to have been drawn into safe Democratic seats. Instead, I think having a single Austin pack as a new seat is the smarter play, and also preserving the current I-35 seat.

[S019]

https://twitter.com/scottbraddock/status/1438257150439174153
I imagine this is a strong sign that Texas will deliver for Republicans in congressional redistricting

Let's be honest, how much further can they go? I see net R+1 as the best case scenario for the GOP as they move to take two RGV seats and cede a Dem seat in Austin, but they're pretty close to maxed out and this to me, just indicates they're stupid.

[S019]

https://twitter.com/scottbraddock/status/1438257150439174153
I imagine this is a strong sign that Texas will deliver for Republicans in congressional redistricting

Let's be honest, how much further can they go? I see net R+1 as the best case scenario for the GOP as they move to take two RGV seats and cede a Dem seat in Austin, but they're pretty close to maxed out and this to me, just indicates they're stupid.

Are you saying that if they do the 20-11 map then they will dummymander the suburbs?

Yes, there are three Dem districts in Dallas right now, there's an R held Biden seat and an R held seat that went from Trump by 2 and a Trump+12 R held seat in the exurbs, cutting that down to just 2 seats is literally asking for trouble. Not to mention, they have a very, very vulnerable seat in Houston.

[S019]

https://twitter.com/scottbraddock/status/1438257150439174153
I imagine this is a strong sign that Texas will deliver for Republicans in congressional redistricting

Let's be honest, how much further can they go? I see net R+1 as the best case scenario for the GOP as they move to take two RGV seats and cede a Dem seat in Austin, but they're pretty close to maxed out and this to me, just indicates they're stupid.

Are you saying that if they do the 20-11 map then they will dummymander the suburbs?

Yes, there are three Dem districts in Dallas right now, there's an R held Biden seat and an R held seat that went from Trump by 2 and a Trump+12 R held seat in the exurbs, cutting that down to just 2 seats is literally asking for trouble. Not to mention, they have a very, very vulnerable seat in Houston.

Is that last seat the Crenshaw one?

No this is state Senate, it's Joan Huffman's seat

[S019]

https://twitter.com/scottbraddock/status/1438257150439174153
I imagine this is a strong sign that Texas will deliver for Republicans in congressional redistricting

Let's be honest, how much further can they go? I see net R+1 as the best case scenario for the GOP as they move to take two RGV seats and cede a Dem seat in Austin, but they're pretty close to maxed out and this to me, just indicates they're stupid.

Are you saying that if they do the 20-11 map then they will dummymander the suburbs?

Yes, there are three Dem districts in Dallas right now, there's an R held Biden seat and an R held seat that went from Trump by 2 and a Trump+12 R held seat in the exurbs, cutting that down to just 2 seats is literally asking for trouble. Not to mention, they have a very, very vulnerable seat in Houston.

Is that last seat the Crenshaw one?

Probably not, since he's talking about the State Senate map.

Since you're bringing up Crenshaw's seat, it was only Trump +1, though Crenshaw ran ahead of Trump by double digits.

Ah no wonder.  I thought the numbers should have been more like 38 or something, that explains it.  I think they will definitely shore up that Crenshaw seat big time because he's like the GOP golden boy right now. 

Kevin Brady retiring helps them with this because there is now no incumbent to demand keeping Montgomery whole. Parochial concerns from Montgomery legislators who may want to succeed Brady may prevent a total carve up, but I don't see why they can't at least split it in half and give half to Crenshaw.

[S019]

So it seems one Dem was drawn out?

[S019]

So it seems one Dem was drawn out?

Yeah the Tarrant one, but that seat was marginal anyway and surrounded by very red seats. notably the GOP tried something similar to this in 2010 on the congressional map, but were told that Tarrant needs to have some minority representation. Mind end up having to return that seat to the Dems as a new pack.

do we have partisanship numbers for these maps?

[S019]

Simple amendment to make TX-15 a bit more favorable for the GOP

who proposed this amendment?

[S019]

I'm honestly really surprised that Kay Granger was willing to take a seat that could flip within 10 years.

Remember that the map is only a dummymander if it fails to deliver net gains over the decade as a whole.

I do think that's possible honestly, consensus seems to Democrats gain at least two (24 and 3) and possibly more (38, 21, etc.), for the Republicans 15 is a plausible pickup and maybe 28 if RGV trends continue, though I'm less sure about that one given it's more urban parts of the RGV like Hidalgo and Webb which shifted much less than the rural parts and also has a sizable chunk of Bexar County, 34 is not flipping unless we see 2016->2020 shifts replicated multiple times, which seems unlikely imo.