2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2 (user search)
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Author Topic: 2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2  (Read 168010 times)
S019
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Posts: 18,389
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: -1.39

P P P
« on: May 10, 2020, 02:36:22 PM »
Quote from: lfromnj on May 08, 2020, 06:25:07 PM
https://projects.jhkforecasts.com/house-forecast/

Jhk house forecast.
Pretty good measure where the house is at right now, mostly agree with most ratings.

Xochitl Torres Small and Andy Kim holding on while GA-07 stays R makes no sense.
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S019
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,389
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: -1.39

P P P
« Reply #1 on: July 20, 2020, 03:56:32 PM »
Quote from: Landslide Lyndon on July 20, 2020, 03:53:47 PM
That's ...bizarre.



Leading only by 1 in this seat in his own internal is awful news for LaTurner, and makes me think this is winnable for Democrats even if Watkins loses renomination
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S019
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,389
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: -1.39

P P P
« Reply #2 on: July 28, 2020, 03:02:18 PM »
Quote from: Make PA Blue Again! on July 28, 2020, 02:59:21 PM
Colby College poll of ME-02

Golden (D-inc.): 45%
Crafts (R): 33%
Other: 5%

https://t.co/bb15uw1OpO?amp=1

Golden seems to be better shape than I thought. I currently have his race at a tossup, but I might have to move it to Lean D, especially since ME-02 at the presidential level looks closer than I expect, but I'd like to wait for more data before making conclusions.
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S019
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,389
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: -1.39

P P P
« Reply #3 on: August 12, 2020, 12:26:57 PM »
Quote from: Roll Roons on August 12, 2020, 12:24:45 PM
Inside Elections has come up with a list of GOP-held seats they list as Safe R, but are potentially worth watching in a huge wave. Trump won all of these districts in 2016 with 52-58 percent. 
https://www.insideelections.com/news/article/house-races-to-watch

CA-04 (McClintock)
CA-08 (Open, Cook)
CA-22 (Nunes)
CA-50 (Open, Hunter)
FL-18 (Mast)
IL-16 (Kinzinger)
KS-02 (Open, Watkins)
KY-06 (Barr)
MI-02 (Huizenga)
MI-07 (Walberg)
MN-08 (Stauber)
NE-01 (Fortenberry)
NV-02 (Amodei)
NJ-04 (Smith)
NY-21 (Stefanik)
NY-23 (Reed)
NC-09 (Bishop)
OH-12 (Balderson)
OH-14 (Joyce)
OH-16 (Gonzalez)
SC-02 (Wilson)
TX-03 (Taylor)
TX-17 (Open, Flores)
TX-31 (Carter)
VA-01 (Wittman)
WI-01 (Steil)
WI-06 (Grothman)

I have my doubts about most of these seats, but could any realistically be in play?

KS-02, TX-31, OH-12, CA-22 are the most plausible, in that order. KS-02 has a strong D candidate, TX-31 could very well be won by Biden and his coattails could help the winner, and OH-12 and CA-22 could be wave insurance in a very large Democratic win nationally.
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S019
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,389
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: -1.39

P P P
« Reply #4 on: August 19, 2020, 02:07:26 PM »

Tossup, but I still think Spartz wins narrowly
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