Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

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0.4 point lead for Neubauer with 85% reporting

I'm not going to call this for Hagedorn, I have had too many races, where I think they'll come back, they'll come back, and it doesn't happen, once he actually overtakes her in the polls, I'll start to believe that it's over

But with the impending recount, nothing is guaranteed

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Guys, call me crazy, but I think Wisconsin might be a swing state.

It is, it's a pure Tossup, and there are many people who will unironically declare WI Lean R or Lean D after this race

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Hagedorn pulled ahead with 88% of the vote in, albeit by less than 1,000 votes

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Massive victory for Team R.

Not yet, Nebauer trails by less than 1,000 votes, paths to victory still exist for her, also there is an impending recount, which could add uncounted ballots

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Hagedorn's lead is now over 2,000 votes with 91% in

Probably over, but there will still be a recount

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A year ago the Dems were in good shape in WI. Heck, six months ago they were. What happened? Three straight months of AOC, AOC, AOC, and throw in Ilhan Omar and Rashida Tlaib while you're at it. This is not a faaaar left country. Lauren Underwood and Abby Spanberger represent the median voter who swings Democrat, not AOC. Nancy Pelosi needs to get control of her caucus.

Lauren Underwood is actually one of the most liberal Democrats, according to VoteView

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Today's result is definitely reasurring

After that debacle in Pennsylvania, today, this was really needed

This win shows that Trump's win was not a fluke, and WI will be a competitive state

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If Neubauer wins, I’ll move WI-PRES from Toss-up to Likely D, declare WI a Democratic-trending/permanent Democratic state and call the 2020 race for the Democratic candidate.

If Hagedorn wins, I’ll move WI-PRES from Toss-up to Likely R, declare WI a Republican-trending/permanent R state and call the 2020 race for Trump.

RATINGS CHANGES becuz of speshul electionz:

PA: Toss up -> Safe D
WI: Toss up -> Safe R
CT: Safe D -> Lean D
OK: Safe R -> Lean R

Well, no, but tonight does reinforce the "PA will be the easiest Trump state for Dems to win back" narrative. 
 

I agree with this, I think PA is Tossup/Tilt D, WI is Pure Tossup

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The weird thing is in this day in and age this is for sure a winning map in WI.

Yeah, but Hagedorn really overperformed in the Milwaukee suburbs/WOW counties + Dem underperformance in Milwaukee County.

Pretty typical for a spring election without an incumbent. Milwaukee doesn't care unless you make them care.

I still don’t get how Hagedorn was able to win this when Rebecca Dallet won her race in a blowout.

I'm guessing that the anti-Walker mood was already building in WI, and the national GOP was toxic in 2018. This year, Walker is gone and the GOP as a party is not as toxic

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The weird thing is in this day in and age this is for sure a winning map in WI.

Yeah, but Hagedorn really overperformed in the Milwaukee suburbs/WOW counties + Dem underperformance in Milwaukee County.

Pretty typical for a spring election without an incumbent. Milwaukee doesn't care unless you make them care.

I still don’t get how Hagedorn was able to win this when Rebecca Dallet won her race in a blowout.

I'm guessing that the anti-Walker mood was already building in WI, and the national GOP was toxic in 2018. This year, Walker is gone and the GOP as a party is not as toxic

But Hagedorn was a terrible candidate with a history of toxic positions and lost the support of a lot of groups that tend to back conservative justices. The takeaway is that nobody is too extreme for the Republican base if they actually come out to vote.

A counterpoint to this is some candidates are so terrible (Roy Moore), that a significant portion of the base will just decide not to vote

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Hagedorn's margin just narrowed to 0.2% with 94% in, this may not be completely over

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I think it's always been pretty obvious that WI is the least fertile ground of the MI/PA/WI trio. It's the state where Dems are most dependent on white rural voters to give them a winning coalition, which is problematic for obvious reasons. On top of that, Evers' victory margin in a D+9 Democratic wave year was not exactly impressive, and Dems did worse than Hillary in the one House seat they targeted in the state.

Tammy Baldwin beating a trash-tier candidate by a bit more than the NPV did not suddenly mean Wisconsin was back to being a Democratic stronghold again.

Pretty much. I could still see a scenario in which WI is more Democratic than MI, but yeah, I don’t see how it votes to the left of PA.

Btw, this has tightened to Hagedorn +.2.

I doubt MI votes to the right of WI, because of Detroit, Flint, Ann Arbor, combined being larger vote sinks than Milwaukee and Madison, combined. The WOW Suburbs are still quite Republican and SW WI had a lot of Trump-Feingold voters (populists), in MI, the Kent County trend is not good, nor is losing both MI-08 and MI-11, two CD's that Trump has to win, to have any shot at MI

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This is why you don't call races, done until they are, Neubauer definitely still has a path left only being down 0.4% with 96% in

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I reckon Atlas will be seeing a "D-Minnesota" tagline under my username in the next 5-6 months if Hagedorn wins! My faith in the future for WI Dems has officially been tainted.

Nebauer hasn't lost yet, she still has paths to victory and there will be a recount

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Journal Sentinel shows Trempaleau with no votes reporting, is anyone sure why?

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Nothing from the City of Appleton yet.

The white area near Appleton is Lake Winnabago

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This race just reaffirmed that WI is a Tossup and will probably be the 2020 tipping point, it could become a bellwether state, but no WI will not be Safe R anytime soon, unless Milwaukee is ceded to Illinois and Madison becomes its own state

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Was going to reply to a post in the other thread, but:

Re: Outagamie oustanding precincts, the 18 that have reported so far are villages and townships. All of the Appleton precincts, which should be more favorable to Neubauer, are still out.

Obviously there aren't enough votes there to make a difference but this will narrow the margin a little bit.

e: https://www.outagamie.org/government/departments-a-e/county-clerk/elections/election-results

What do you know about Trempaleau, when we those votes coming in

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4-3 decision in Wisconsin against the GOP. I wonder which conservative justice provided the 4th vote?

I'd be surprised if it wasn't Hagedorn?