NH-UMass Amherst/YouGov: Shaheen +3 over Sununu/+5 over Ayotte

[S019]

Tilt D,

But comes down to the national environmmet, NH is a tossup, contrary to what Atlas believes, and both parties will heavily invest hear and the winner of NH’s 4 EVs will drag the Senate candidate over the finish line

If the election was today, I would say NH goes R and MI goes D, but this is Tilt D, because the election is more than a year away and Shaheen is a very popular incumbent. This will probably move to Tossup, but too early to tell

[S019]

Shaheen is most likely going win again, even if Trump flipped New Hampshire she would still win. Shaheen is a more established Senator than Hassan, and would beat Kelly Ayotte, Frank Guinta, or any Republican thrown at her, by at least 4-5%.

Governor Sununu could beat Shaheen, but as he has already declined to run, I don't see the point to looking at polls pertaining to a potential senate campaign from him next year.

Many times, politicians decline and look back at the race later, for example, early on, Joe Biden repeatedly declined that he had interest in the race.