politicus still ocassionally posts on AAD, but seeing that she's not coming back here anytime soon, I've taken the liberty to copy some of her observations, excellent as always, and post them here*
Structurally it was a wash between the blocs/tendencies in Greenlandic politics:
"Siumut family" (Siumut, Naleraq, Nunatta Q.): 16 (nc)
Populists (Siumut family + Atassut): 18 (nc)
"Urban/educated", technocratic approach parties (IA, Democrats, Cooperation Party): 15 (nc)
So IA and the Democrats don't have a majority ruling out a 2009-13 redux and making IA's bargaining position much weaker, and IA's only options are an anti-uranium coalition with the unruly populists in Naleraq or a Grand Coalition with Siumut. There is a majority among the "populist" parties (Siumut, Naleraq and Atassut), but even if Siumut could bribe Naleraq to forget about uranium (or hold a referendum about it as Atassut wants) and enter one they likely won't try to because outgoing Premier and ex-chairman Kim Kielsen got more votes than the new leader Erik Jensen and the fight over who should lead the government would split the party. Must admit the result kinda suck, both IA/Naleraq and IA/Siumut will be very unstable
[re: a poll]
That's closer to the result than usual in Greenland and actually quite good given the circumstances (low turnout, difficulty of figuring out who had used postal votes and vote changes in the final week), for once not overestimating the IA vote.
A third of voters were undecided in the poll, and they clearly broke for Siumut (as usual..), while the Democrats and the Cooperation Party with their well-educated middle class voters who had already made up their mind, underperformed more with late deciders than the pollster had expected in their model. Naleraq probably genuinely lost support to Siumut in the final week of the campaign and it's clear some of their voters simply didn't show up, so you can't really blame the pollster for getting their numbers wrong - they may very well have been around 16% at the time the poll was conducted. HSA won't get any credit for this, but I think they deserve some. Greenland is tricky to poll and while you can more or less guesstimate that a lot of low educated undecideds are going to vote Siumut in the end you'll get other things wrong if you try weighing unskilled workers and retirees more.
* in case she's lurking here: please don't send hitmen after me
