What is the chance of a left wing coalition of SF + Greens + Labour + smaller left wing parties? Seems unlikely but at least shift suggests support for left wing parties is unusually high for Ireland which is odd as left has traditionally been weak here while in rest of Europe where historically strong, its now at an all time low.
None.
Irish Labour have never exactly been paragons of socialism, but today they've become something like the Liberals in Canada, and that's on a good day. Same goes for the Greens and the Social Democrats. Plus, there's the fact that Sinn Féin has a similar position in the Irish political system as far right in the rest of Europe - a party of working-class nationalist populism. I'm sure most of Irish media (and Labour/Green voters) would react to an SF victory as if they were the Le Pens.
I'm not Irish, so this is pure guessing and don't take it too seriously, but perhaps Labor's (and rest of Irish centre-left's) party culture was so influenced by the constant anti-FF coalitions they took part in that they came to view FF and what it represents (working class, countryside, not being urban secular bobos etc.) as their enemy. SF is
culturally basically pre-Irish Tiger FF turned up to 11, so it makes sense Labour would hate them in a system where ideology isn't that important. Again, I'm just making up theories.
As for what the government
could be, I mused about something earlier in this thread.
Seeing that the results could end up being not very different from last time, are FF open to continuing to support FG in government? If they are too fed up with them and/or finish first, and have enough seats to govern with support of Sinn Féin+indies, would they go for that option?
