Israeli General Election (2019) II: Electric Boogaloo (17.9.2019)

[Estrella]

I know its can't really be answered exhaustively in a short post, but *why* has Israel Labour become such a dead loss?

(Disclaimer: not an expert. Likely mistaken about some stuff.)

It's because Labour are a relic of a completely different society.

The largest group among the founders of Israel were secular Ashkenazi socialists, which is why Labour and their predecessors have been Israel's "natural governing party" since independence until their first defeat in 1977. Back then, most of the population were recent immigrants from Europe, where leftist Zionism has been strong since early 20th century. Kibbutzim - designed to be almost a kind of socialist utopias - had a large role in the economy and high prestige because of their role in populating and "conquering" the land. Furthermore, many non-Ashkenazi-leftist voters voted for the religious but otherwise moderate National Religious Party that happily governed with Labour.

Things weren't to stay that way, though. Two things completely upended this social order: changing demographics and a change of attitudes about the conflict.

From the 60s on Sephardim (religious Iberians/North Africans) and ex-Soviets (secular but hawkish) comprised a larger and larger share of newcomers. Especially with the former, Labour were reluctant to integrate them into their structure, resisted their representation in institutions and actively discriminated against them. Over time, this drove them to vote for the right * - not as counterintuitive as it may seem, as the Israeli political spectrum isn't "generic Western left" vs. "generic Western right", but rather doves vs. hawks.

Today, secular Ashkenazis have the lowest birthrate of all groups, and younger voters are overwhelmingly right-wing, so it's not like things are going to get any better.  Labour had a serious image problem with the young for a long time, though - a poll from the 1981 election showed the voters thought of Likud as a younger (and more progressive) party.

Israel's crushing victory in the Six Day War unleashed a sort of "messianic complex" among the previously moderate National Religious-ers that slowly spread over to the rest of the society. The brief goodwill that the peace process had in the 90s vanished with the Second Intifada, the bad handling of which buried Ehud Barak's prime ministership and Labour with it, as voters - especially the working class - flocked to the right in droves. That was the breaking point - the last time Labour headed a government, as it turned out.

All of this made Labour's potential voter pool much smaller, but still a non-insignificant percentage of society. The reason why many of Labour potential voters don't vote for them is comparable to the reasons why Western European socdems suck electorally. "Respectable" urban middle class left for Gantz/Grünen/LREM, "activists" and "radicals" for Meretz/Linke/Mélénchon.
 
_{* Of course, it was more complicated than this; for example, back in the 80s, Shas had connections to the revolutionary Marxist Black Panthers.}

[Estrella]

If the result is a grand coalition (or any coalition, for that matter) without Bibi, could he try to start a new party aimed at fighting against muh leftist judges and keeping him out of jail? Maybe it could work, if he's still so popular.

[Estrella]

If the result is a grand coalition (or any coalition, for that matter) without Bibi, could he try to start a new party aimed at fighting against muh leftist judges and keeping him out of jail? Maybe it could work, if he's still so popular.

The assumption is that he will try to somehow overturn the election result. He'd rather be dead in a ditch than have to accept an elected government that opposes him.

Is there any remotely realistic way it could be done? Like, if he really wanted to, I guess he could convince/threaten Rivlin into dissolving Knesset and calling yet another election, but that would lead to a huge backlash. But IMO the most dramatic way this whole thing could end is Bibi fleeing the country (and even then, where to?)

[Estrella]

I also have a sneaking suspicion that Blue and White is waiting until tomorrow night to announce that Lapid has decided to cancel the rotation agreement with Gantz, leaving the more broadly popular Gantz as the party's sole candidate for prime minister. The Channel 13 poll yesterday gave 3 more mandates to Blue and White if Lapid nixed the rotation. That would probably be a major gamechanger. And with victory so, so close, it would be just plain weird for Lapid to die on that hill.

Really? I was under the  impression that Gantz had a reputation in some circles as a bumbling rookie, while Lapid was essentially the bad cop to Gantz's good cop, rallying the Liberal base against the Haredi. But if it works it works.

Gantz might be seen as a bumbling rookie (I read an article that speculated that he keeps himself out of the news to prevent people comparing him to Bibi, who is still seen as more trustworthy), but he's a military man and has the image that goes with it, while many voters see Lapid as some pansy rich latte-sipping metropolitan. Perhaps some right-wingers won't be as motivated to turn out when there's no danger of Lapid ending up as PM?

[Estrella]

Someone's getting desperate.

https://www.jpost.com/Israel-Elections/Netanyahu-calls-emergency-meeting-days-before-election-601645

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu requested an emergency meeting with the head of the Central Elections Committee, Supreme Court Judge, Hanan Melcer, ahead of Tuesday's election, following a report of widespread voter fraud in the Arab sector in the April election.   

“They will try to steal the election," Netanyahu said in an interview with KAN 11 on Saturday night.

The Likud said the findings of the investigation were grave and indicate that the election was “stolen” from Netanyahu, because without forged votes, the Balad-United Arab List faction might not have crossed the electoral threshold, Likud might have had two more seats and the second election could have been averted.

Bibi is probably too toast for this to work like "teh Arabs are going to vote!1!11!!" did in 2015, but it does show that he won't stop at anything. I really don't wanna see what tantrums he'll be throwing if/when he loses.

[Estrella]

Democratic Camp 86%
Labor-Gesher 85%
Blue and White 2% (what?)

[Estrella]

Channel 12:
Left 55 / Lieberman 8 / Bibi 57

Kahol Lavan 34
Likud 33
Joint List 11
Shas 8
UTJ 8
Yisrael Beitenu 8
Yamina 8
Labor-Gesher 5
Dem Camp 5
Otzma Yehudit 0

[Estrella]

So, seeing that I'm stuck at home with a cold, I decided to make a graph of all Israeli election results since 1949, in percentages of seats (can't do it in absolute terms, fck you Google Sheets): now that I'm looking at it, it is in terms of seats. shouldn't have been doing this at 3am

Here are they in just three groups:

Right click for a (slightly) bigger version.

For this election's results, I used that new Channel 13 exit poll. 1-2 seats shifting either way shouldn't really matter, these charts are just illustrative anyway.

It's really telling how the ostensible instability just masks a pillarized and much more stable system. And man, that slow shift from all-powerful left to them being a joke like the right used to be is just something incredible.

This is how I sorted the parties into categories (I put every party that won seats in one of these, but I'm leaving out some irrelevant win-1-seat-and-vanish outfits):
Arabs: Satellite lists, Hadash ^{1992 and after}, United Arab List, Progressive List for Peace, Balad, Ra'am, Joint List, Ta'al
Far-left: Mapam, Maki, Rakah, Ratz, Hadash ^{before 1992, first year the majority of their MKs were Arabs}, Meretz
Left: Mapai, Ahdut HaAvoda, Alignment, Rafi, Labor, One Israel, Zionist Union, Labor-Gesher, Democratic Camp
Centre: General Zionists, Yemenite Association, Progressive Party, Libralit, Ind. Liberals, National List, Dash, Free Centre, Telem, Shinui, Third Way, Kadima, Gil, Yesh Atid, Hatnuah, Kahol Lavan
Right: Herut, Gahal, Likud, Tzomet, Yisrael Beitenu, Yisrael BaAliyah, Kulanu
Religious: United Religious Front, Sephardim & Oriental Communities, (Poalei) Aguadat Yisrael, Shas, Degel HaTorah, UTJ
National Religious: Hapoel HaMizrachi, Tehiya, Tami, Kach, National Union, Jewish Home, URWP, Yamina

^{I gotta say that I'm kinda proud of this - it's not much, but it's the first time I've done something like this. Oh, and it looks pretty cool as well.}

[Estrella]

Just a small correction: Ra'am is affiliated with the southern branch of the Islamic Movement, more moderate than its outlawed northern counterpart.

Are (religious) Arabs in the North more radically anti-Zionist than those in the South?

(And talking about that, are there any good maps of Arab vote?)

[Estrella]

So could Hadash and maybe Ta’al join the government, with Ra’am and Balad supporting from the outside? Or would they need to break up (again) for that to be a possibility? I really don’t like either of them but hey

Also, could someone go through the key differences between Ta’al, Ra’am and Balad? The only difference I can see is that Ra’am are more religious.

Actually Ra’am sound on board as well

If they could lay off the Allah stuff, that’d be great. Separation of religion and state means separation of religion and state.

Tell that to the Haredim.