2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

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https://www.wktv.com/content/news/Brindisi-decides-not-to-run-for-Congress-in-2022-574700631.html

Brindisi has withdrawn from the NY-22 (pending redistricting) race after declaring his intention to retake his seat in January.

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https://www.wktv.com/content/news/Brindisi-decides-not-to-run-for-Congress-in-2022-574700631.html

Brindisi has withdrawn from the NY-22 (pending redistricting) race after declaring his intention to retake his seat in January.

Everything upstate will look a lot different with new maps, if he was in a primary in a new Biden +12 seat he might have lost to someone more liberal. I do think the Ds will gerrymander NY at the direction of the national party that needs it to offset GOP ones elsewhere.

At the very least it sounds like Oneida will stay in a solidly Republican district.

Dems will put Utica in a blue leaning district and probably have the rest of the county in an ultra red NY-21.

I worry that him dropping out means the opposite and Utica is going to get stuck to the Adirondacks or something.

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Monmouth National Poll has Biden at 39/55 JA, the Right Track/Wrong Track Number at 20/72

BUT the GCB at 46/46

Give me a break! What is Monmouth and their Pollster Patrick Murray fabricating here? Unbelievable!

Democrats are not going to overperform Bidens Number by 7 Points Nationally.

If they were going to make up GCB numbers why wouldn't they also make up the JA numbers

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Fundraising numbers mean nothing lol.

On Atlas, many fellow bloggers think:

Democrats outraising Republicans: Fundraising means nothing, candidates with smaller warchests often win as well

Republicans outraising Democrats: These fundraising numbers clearly indicate Democrats are headed for a major defeat

Pairs well with the Atlas guide to polling:

D+10 or more: This poll is ridiculous, clearly wrong, and shouldn’t be taken as indicative of anything
D+6 to D+9: When you consider the massive Democrat bias in polling, this is only indicative of the fact that the race is competitive. Tossup
D+2 to D+5: Bad poll for Democrats, if you apply the 2020 polling error this is a clear Republican lead. Tilt R, maybe Lean R.
EVEN to D+1: Polling error and undecideds mean that this race will not be close in the end, Lean R.
R+3 to R+1: If even <Pollster> is showing the Dems behind, this race is over. Likely R.
R+9 to R+4: Nothing to see here. Safe R.
R+10 or more: This poll is gospel. Safe R. The Republicans are going to win in a landslide, 55 Senate seats and 250 House seats are not out of the question.