2008 State Elections in Austria and Germany

[BenNebbich]

it's CSU in bavaria. small but important difference.

[BenNebbich]

Polling Update:

Bavaria:

CSU: 56%
SPD: 17%
Greens: 9%
FDP: 4%
Left Party: 4%
Others: 10%

The CSU would keep it´s 2/3 majority ...

depends of 'freie wähler#; kind of a independent party. maybe they get over 5%, so the CSU must be satisfied with 50%+.

[BenNebbich]

wishful thinking.

i think koch will start a short and hard campaign and will lead his cdu up to 44%.

that should be enough with the helpful liberals to be successful.

B.N.

[BenNebbich]

there is no reason for hessia to change government.

ypsilanti is not attractive in a political way.

red-green has lost its charme, red-red-green has no charme.

i think there will be a campaign coming up against 'the left' and it will appeal to the people and be successful.

sorry about that.

[BenNebbich]

well i think voters will find koch more attractive than ypsilanti.

and however he will govern four (or five?) more years.

the political left in germany is destroyed. they are down. the spd is needed as a junior-partner in big coalition. all their strongholds are now under cdu government.

the spd personal is exhausted. they lost too many of their leading personal (engholm, lafontaine, schröder, scharping, eichel...)

it's ok to think that the cdu is worse and less attractive. but nethertheless they win the elections.

i predict today for the next federal election:

- no more spd in the government
- overwhelming victory of cdu/csu/fdp

it's not the point that i wish that outcom, but to be realistic there is no other possibility.

[BenNebbich]

hi,

i haven't found any information about 'for tyrol'. but dinkhauser is a former 'left-wing' ovp member.

so it looks like a centrist party.

[BenNebbich]

i don't like struck.

but this seems to be a fine piece of work from him.

[BenNebbich]

but if 'the left' stays under 5% it's a victory for koch.

but anyway, ypsilanti did quite well.

[BenNebbich]

New Hamburg poll:

SPD: 38%
CDU: 37%
Greens: 13%
Left: 6%
FDP: 5%

Majority for SPD/Greens.

that ain't gonna happen. no way.

[BenNebbich]

Hessen- part two.

[BenNebbich]

@ tender

fdp in or out?

[BenNebbich]

I'd prefer cdu/green.

could work in hamburg.

[BenNebbich]

And today are local elections in Bavaria.

you can get the numbers of landshut first here on the forum.

[BenNebbich]

csu down 6 seats; greens up 3 seats in the city council.

well done landshut!

[BenNebbich]

csu down 6 seats; greens up 3 seats in the city council.

well done landshut!

Was this expected? And what's Landshut like?

not so much.

landshut is a town with 60.000 inhabitants; few industry; lots of administration; csu lost over 10 %; greens won about 5%.

[nice town to visit, anyway]

[BenNebbich]

no results yet.

local elections in bavaria are quite complicated.

for example i had 44 votes for my city council. i gave my votes to different parties.

so counting may last until wednesday.

[BenNebbich]

something seems to be wrong with the numbers of the greens.

[BenNebbich]

New GMS/Sat1 poll for Bavaria:

CSU - 50% (-11)
SPD - 20% (nc)
Greens - 8% (nc)
FDP - 5% (+2)
The Left - 5% (+5)

Freie Wähler - 4% (nc)
ÖDP - 2% (nc)
The Right - 2% (nc)
Others - 4% (+4)

csu will at least get 53%. the alternatives are just too poor for the bavarian people.

[BenNebbich]

any explanation?

[BenNebbich]

don't you worry to much.

come election day in bavaria we'll see a majority of the pv (> 50%) for the CSU.

I still predict about 53%, because the other parties aren't attractive for bavarian voters.

[BenNebbich]

FW @ 7%. The Pauli-Bounce maybe ?

ha,ha - you are funny!