The Institute of 2012 GOP nomination Intrade rankings

[Dan the Roman]

Also, while Intrade doesn't offer "winning individual" contracts yet, they are offered at Betfair:

http://www.betfair.com/

Current Betfair probabilities for the following people being elected president in 2012:

Obama 48
Romney 10
Palin 6
Thune 5
Pawlenty 4
Hillary Clinton 3
Daniels 3
Gingrich 3
Huckabee 3

That's funny.

I guess someone thinks she'll challenge and beat Obama in the Democratic primary.

Thune is doing very well, Gingrich not so much.

Maybe Thune/Barbour 2012?

Or more likely that he will not run. I think there is a chance, not a large one, but probably around 15% that he won't. In that case, Hillary would probably have a 70% or so chance of winning the nomination, and probably a better than 50-50 shot in the general, so if anything she may be undervalued.

[Dan the Roman]

Daniels is way undervalued.
He is probably the best placed person right now among the people who matter.

He has the Bush machine more or less coalescing behind him.
He will start with the support of Christie, McDonnell, Walker
He is offensive to no one in the party
He looks like someone who can win
He fulfills the desire for something different without being insane or unelectable
The media loves him

With Gringrich all but through, and Huckabee, Trump, and Palin out, there is a large collection of anti-Romney voters looking for a home and for someone to beat Obama. Huntsman is too clearly moderate, but Daniels is not.

[Dan the Roman]

Futures market analyst extraordinaire wormyguy offers his analysis.

Romney 28.0 - BUY
Pawlenty 23.7 - SELL
Huntsman 15.1 - SELL
Cain 6.3 - HOLD
Palin 6.2 - Wait for uptick, then SELL
Bachmann 5.3 - BUY
Christie 3.0 - Wait for uptick, then SELL
Gingrich 2.8 - BUY
Perry 2.8 - Wait for uptick, then SELL
Paul 2.6 - BUY
Giuliani 1.1 - BUY
Ryan 1.0 - HOLD
Johnson 0.7 - Wait for uptick, then SELL
Santorum 0.7 - BUY
J. Bush 0.3 - Wait for uptick, then SELL

For now yes. I would buy Huntsman as the general election winner though. Because I suspect he has better odds of actually becoming President than Pawlenty or Romney.