Party control of redistricting after census

[Dan the Roman]

Connecticut, Rhode Island, Hawaii and Vermont should probably be one party control, because while they have veto wielding GOP governors, the Democrats have veto proof majorities in both houses of the legislature. Democrats are 2 seats away in MN, and Republicans are in KS. Also in Ohio, while congressional redistricting is by the legislature, legislative redistricting is by a panel of Constitutional officers currently controlled by the Democrats.

[Dan the Roman]

South Carolina, if it gets another seat, may very well end up with another seat like Spratt's, winnable by a democrat under good circumstances. This year the Democrats won 52% of the vote cast in House races, and both the first and second districts had very close calls, 52-48, and 54-46. The first is especially problematic as Charleston is moving left at the speed of light. If I were the GOP map drawers I would create a Charleston district in addition to Clyburn's for Ketner or whoever else wants to run, and move the remaining downstate white democrats into it. Then I would shore up the remaining 4 seats to make them safe Republican, and hope that Spratt's goes the right way when he retires.

This is far from sure. SC is not AL or MS. Its taking in a lot of transplants just like North Carolina, and the fact that Obama improved substantially on Kerry's performance among white voters is a giveaway of this. If the Republicans get too greedy they could end up 4-3 Dem.

[Dan the Roman]

South Carolina, if it gets another seat, may very well end up with another seat like Spratt's, winnable by a democrat under good circumstances. This year the Democrats won 52% of the vote cast in House races, and both the first and second districts had very close calls, 52-48, and 54-46. The first is especially problematic as Charleston is moving left at the speed of light. If I were the GOP map drawers I would create a Charleston district in addition to Clyburn's for Ketner or whoever else wants to run, and move the remaining downstate white democrats into it. Then I would shore up the remaining 4 seats to make them safe Republican, and hope that Spratt's goes the right way when he retires.

This is far from sure. SC is not AL or MS. Its taking in a lot of transplants just like North Carolina, and the fact that Obama improved substantially on Kerry's performance among white voters is a giveaway of this. If the Republicans get too greedy they could end up 4-3 Dem.

Don't agree with that at all.  McCain won Spratt's district by goodly margin despite Spratt winning 61-37 against a token Republican.  For a change, the Dems ran about the best candidates they possibly could against Brown and Wilson in a good year for the Dems and they still lost.  Brown should be safe enough for 2010 and Wilson definitely.  I agree that the GOP will need to take some steps to keep the 1st district safe GOP for 2012 and after, but they should be able to achieve it.  The only monkeywrench that might sabotage GOP hopes for keeping the Dems to 1 safe seat plus the one that Spratt holds onto via the power of incumbency would be if the numbers support a second majority-minority district.  The numbers will be close.  Even without gerrymandering counties, there's enough majority minority areas to support half a district, and if it goes down to a precinct level there might be enough for two such districts, though such a map would be an unholy monster.  The reason our current majority-minority district doesn't look as bad as most such abominations is that extra half a district to work with.

I'm not sure. According to Swing state-project, the district numbers for the Presidential race were:

1:40-59
2:43-56
3:34-64
4.38-60
5.45-54
6:62-47

I really don't see how you get down to 2 seats if the state gains one. Spratt's district is fairly democratic for a Southern seat, and was much better than say AL-5 which Obama lost 60-39. And the Democrats won an open seat there this year. All I'm saying is even in its current configuration, I'm not convinced the Spratt seat is lost if he retires, and especially if the GOP is going to have 7 seats to play with, its better to go for 5-2 split of safe seats by moving Clyburn into Charleston, and giving some of the black areas to Spratt to make that seat solidly Democratic.

Also I'm not sure if the candidates in SC-1 and SC-2 were the strongest possible ones. Miller was outspent by 4-1, while Ketner was a lesbian. Nevertheless, they got 46% and 48% respectively. What would a straight Ketner or a properly funded Miller have done last year? Does the GOP want to take a chance during another bad year?