If we treat the national poll results as a given, this is in some sense a horrific poll result for Sen. McCain. Why? Because it gives credence to the hypothesis that the main gains he received from selecting Gov. Palin came in states that he was going to win anyways, and that the national bounce he received doesn't correspond to an increased chance of winning the election.
To put it differently: If McCain has gained 5 points nationally, but significantly more than five points in states like Oklahoma (McCain was only +14 in the June Research 2000 poll), then he must have gained significantly less than 5 points in other states. If (as some of the other recent polls suggest) those states are Florida and Colorado, this may not be such a good week of polling for McCain after all.
I'd guess that McCain has gained less than 5 points in some of the no-shot-in-hell states, like New York and my own Massachusetts.
I agree on New York. I think Massachusetts is either right in line with the national swing or greater. I have a friend who is working on a legislative race here and their tracking poll has Obama up 47-43 in a district Bush lost 59-41 last time. Again though, that may be the massive Massachusetts undecided number, but I think Massachusetts this year will either swing against the national average(if Obama wins) or much greater than it(if McCain does).
Anyway, if McCain point were gaining more in swing states it would go against every past election both here and abroad. In almost every case of a landslide whether here, Canada, Britain, or Australia, the swing is much smaller in marginal seats and states and largest in safe states of the other party.
For example look at 1988. Dukakis outperformed his national margin in PA, MI, MN, WI, and CA, and PA and CA only went for Bush 50-48. At the same time he only won his home state of Massachusetts 53-47. so there was only a five point difference between PA and MA. If McCain wins by a Bush 88 like margin, most of the swing states will still be close, and almost all of his gains over Bush will likely be concentrated in safe Kerry or Bush states from 2004.
