NH: Granite State Poll: Sununu narrows gap to 4

[Dan the Roman]

See my comments in the other thread. Party ID is waaaaaay off.

44% R 38% D 18% I

Do I have to  mention that their likely voter screen includes individuals not registered to vote?

[Dan the Roman]

Sorry I confused it with the first district.

The party id in the poll is 44% R 44% D 12% I.

The problem with is poll is it overestimates Republicans and Democrats at the expense of independents. Independents in this poll however, seem to behave a lot more like Democrats than Republicans, so it ends up hurting Shaheen who leads by 20.

Shaheen leads Democrats 82-9, Independents 42-26, and loses Republicans 82-11. No way would that margin produce only a 4 point lead in NH.

Re weighted to 35% I 31% D 31%R which is probably still friendly to Sununu we get, a 44% - 37% Shaheen lead.