Canada 2008: Official Thread

[Dan the Roman]

I'm not sure how reliable the polls are now for predicting what will happen. My memory of both 2004 and 2006 is that the Liberals had a substantial lead when the elections were called, imploded after two weeks, and the Conservatives then surged into majority territory, only to fall back in the final week. They just didn't fall as hard in 2006.

The polls, while showing a close race, are much better for the Conservatives than the ones when the 2006 election was called. Depending on the polls the Liberals were up between 5 and 12 points when the election was called.

http://www.nodice.ca/elections/canada/2006/polls.php

SES had Liberals 37% Conservatives 29% NDP 15% Bloc 14% on December 1st 2005

Leger had Liberals 39% Conservatives 27% NDP 16% Bloc 12% on December 7th 2006

Decima had Liberals 36% Conservatives 28% NDP 19% Bloc 12% on December 1st 2005

So I would say the Conservatives are probably much better placed than the current polls indicate. They have a massive organizational and financial advantage, and once the campaign gets going, Dion will get a ton of face time which will not be to the Liberals' advantage.

[Dan the Roman]

So what exactly did the fixed election dates law do?

Make Harper look so noble. It was a complete farce.

As for polling, remember also that the Liberals were in power in 2004 and 2006. I would not expecte the Liberals to suddenly collapse during this campaign, although you can;t rule that out (nor could you rule out a Conservative collapse). Anyway, I think Harper will probably let the Sept 8 by-elections happen since the Liberals are likely to be humiliated in at least one, then call an election.

I was just mentioning that the Conservatives have a history of doing better during the campaign, and with Dion as leader and potential Liberal PM, that probably will not change. Harper at least probably believes this, why else would he call an election when the polls are tied or show him behind?

[Dan the Roman]

Don't mind Earl. He's a hard core dipper (NDP supporter for those outside Canada) and they have a fetish about saying they're the only left wing party in Canada and the Liberals are actually rightists. They say it all the time. It's like a verbal tick.

Sadly, my comment is part of the answer to your second question. The NDP and Liberals would be loathe to form a coalition government. The Liberals see the NDP as no better than gum on their shoe and want nothing to do with them. Especially if it means putting them in a position of power or influence. The NDP sees the Liberals (as I mentioned) as repackaged Conservatives. Some, out of desperation to finally form a government, might swallow their pride and agree to a coalition but most would see it as selling out.

As for the Greens, your suggestion that they 'should' be supporting the NDP sounds a lot like the Liberal argument that the NDP 'should' be supporting them. After all, if you add up all the NDP and Liberal votes the Conservatives would be in permanent opposition, and who could argue with that? (sarcasm intended)

Frustration at vote splitting is a legitimate grievance, particularly when it benefits a sinister bully like Harper. That said, wishing for a coalition of NDP/Liberal/Green is naive. Though they're both leftist parties, the NDP and Liberals disagree on a lot of issues; finding a common banner would be difficult and probably wouldn't last. The Greens transcend the left/right economic divide, though they're pretty close to the NDP and Liberals on social issues. The ideological roots of the three parties just aren't close enough to support a coalition. It's a nice thought, though.

Plus the Liberals are so factionalized, they need all the Ministries to pay off their various constituencies. Much better to form a minority and force the NDP to support them, especially after a good NDP result.

[Dan the Roman]

good NDP result.

I don't have the feeling they'll have a good/excellent result this time 'round. We'll see.

I hope they do well, though. They're the only nationwide party that offers credible year-round opposition to George W. Harper.

Except for the fact that they have kept him in office for two years.

[Dan the Roman]

good NDP result.

I don't have the feeling they'll have a good/excellent result this time 'round. We'll see.

I hope they do well, though. They're the only nationwide party that offers credible year-round opposition to George W. Harper.

Except for the fact that they have kept him in office for two years.

I thought the NDP were the only party to vote against the Harper Government in every motion of confidence?

They haven't voted for the government. They have abstained from voting against it though at least during 2006. Since 2007 they've found its more convenient to force the Liberals to prop up the Government. They had a good result in 2006 and aren't thank anxious for an election.

[Dan the Roman]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Somebody's losing touch with reality...
[/quote]

He'll also change the national flag to this:


[/quote]

Well I like the flag of our soon to be Conservative Overlords.

[Dan the Roman]

Which two ridings do they have a deal [qm]

Central Nova and Saint-Laurent-Cartierville. In the former, no Liberal candidate is opposing May. In Dion's riding, there's no Greenie.

I also read somewhere that the Tories aren't running a candidate against Independent Andre Arthur in Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier.  They don't want to risk splitting the federalist vote, or so the story goes.

The Greens are also, as mentioned earlier, not running a candidate against Bill Casey (basically so May can hammer MacKay on the Atlantic Accord).

I have a hunch that May will disappoint. She strikes me as a bad match for Maritime Liberals. While the current climate is toxic for any Tory there, as an outsider she is singularly poorly placed to exploit it. I would not be shocked if the NDP was actually much more of a threat to MacKay than she was.

[Dan the Roman]

The results are out for those who know how to do a google search.

[Dan the Roman]

Will I get banned?

At the risk of crossing that line, better luck to May next time.

[Dan the Roman]

Also so far, and I am getting updates over the phone rather than from the TV itself, Harper has reason to be pleased so far generally. That said the declarations are not final.

liberal 17 con 11 ndp 4 ind 1 was a moment ago.

Update: Made a slight error latest are

Liberal 18 Con 9 NDP 4 Casey

[Dan the Roman]

Not much new. Atlantic Canada is in, no one else has had any seat results. CSPAN is refusing to broadcast at all online, and is delaying their broadcast, apparently after realizing that many Canadians can get it.

[Dan the Roman]

I had been using this but it hasn't been updated much.

http://electopinion.ca/en

[Dan the Roman]

This means the Tories picked up 5 seats in NB and NS. Probably a decent sign for them.