Sam Spade's 2008 Senate/House Election Prediction Thread (FINALIZED - SEE P.18)

[Dan the Roman]

Good list. I know it is a small change but I have better feeling about the democrats prospects in Ohio 16 than in 15. I think the candidate line-up there is much better for them.

Also I think Chris Murphy is much safer than listed. He won by 12 points over the woman who based on past results was arguably the toughest Republican in the northeast, despite being vastly outspent. Yes the district was close in 2004, but this is precisely the type of northeastern seat where Obama will play well, and Murphy has a massive COH advantage over Capiello who would have been a decent candidate in 2002, but has no shot in 2008. I think it will be at least 15 points probably more.

[Dan the Roman]

Interesting KS-03 fundraising numbers:
                                                          Q2        CoH
KS-03     Dennis Moore     D-inc.     $336     $1,140     
KS-03    Nick Jordan    R                 $472    $616    

Jordan may be the toughest foe Moore has ever faced. In 1998, Moore defeated ultra-conservative freshman Congressman Vince Snowbarger. In 2002, the infamous Phill Kiline lost by 3%. Two years later, the NRCC's star recruit here lost in the GOP primary, but the primary winner held Moore to a 50%-47%. The last two cycles have ended with double-digit Moore wins over conservative candidates.

Now the GOP has found a moderate from Johnson County to run against Moore. If Jordan had run in 2002, he might be running for reelection now. While Jordan is the right fit for the district, he still faces the twin challenges of incumbency (Moore finally appears to be ensconced here) and the political climate.

I've bumped this race up to #17th most likely Democratic seat to flip.

Perhaps. Jordan is a  "moderate"  in the sense that he is a nonentity who has not taken part in the factional squabbles in the State Senate. Unfortunately, his effort to unite the Johnson CO GOP is going to be nuked by Phil Kline's run for DA. Kline is going to win a nasty primary, and then he is going to go down in flames in the general in a area he lost by 30 points two years ago.

Normally a local race would not have coattails in a Presidential year, but Kline is currently breaking the local party to pieces, and Jordan allowed himself to be sucked in on Kline's side earlier this year. It was probably a smart decision in the short run because opposing Kline might have triggered a far-right challenge, but it undid most of Jordan's moderate credentials. If Moore is smart he will make Kline's antics the issue, as Kline has become an enormously polarizing figure.

[Dan the Roman]

Interesting KS-03 fundraising numbers:
                                                          Q2        CoH
KS-03     Dennis Moore     D-inc.     $336     $1,140     
KS-03    Nick Jordan    R                 $472    $616    

Jordan may be the toughest foe Moore has ever faced. In 1998, Moore defeated ultra-conservative freshman Congressman Vince Snowbarger. In 2002, the infamous Phill Kiline lost by 3%. Two years later, the NRCC's star recruit here lost in the GOP primary, but the primary winner held Moore to a 50%-47%. The last two cycles have ended with double-digit Moore wins over conservative candidates.

Now the GOP has found a moderate from Johnson County to run against Moore. If Jordan had run in 2002, he might be running for reelection now. While Jordan is the right fit for the district, he still faces the twin challenges of incumbency (Moore finally appears to be ensconced here) and the political climate.

I've bumped this race up to #17th most likely Democratic seat to flip.

Perhaps. Jordan is a  "moderate"  in the sense that he is a nonentity who has not taken part in the factional squabbles in the State Senate. Unfortunately, his effort to unite the Johnson CO GOP is going to be nuked by Phil Kline's run for DA. Kline is going to win a nasty primary, and then he is going to go down in flames in the general in a area he lost by 30 points two years ago.

Normally a local race would not have coattails in a Presidential year, but Kline is currently breaking the local party to pieces, and Jordan allowed himself to be sucked in on Kline's side earlier this year. It was probably a smart decision in the short run because opposing Kline might have triggered a far-right challenge, but it undid most of Jordan's moderate credentials. If Moore is smart he will make Kline's antics the issue, as Kline has become an enormously polarizing figure.

Ah... Phill Kline, a mesmerizingly charismatic public speaker who espouses views to the right of Sam Brownback's, whose mercurial career has yet to reach its eventual nadir.   Now Kline is trying to replace the Johnson County DA who replaced him as AG. I agree with your assessment of Kline's chance. Kline's presence on the ballot with hurt Jordan a little, but I doubt it will cost him the election. Voters know that Jordan is a "mod" and Kline is a"con," they'll distinguish between the two.

I expect Jordan to pull 45%-47% of the vote. If Jordan exceeds Kline's 2000 performance (which was before Kline went off the ideological deep end),  KS-03 will be one of the hottest races of the 2010 cycle. Moore may even retire if he barely wins in such a Democratic year.

Part of the problem with the Moderate-Conservative war in the Kansas GOP is that while it has ideological underpinnings, its not really so much ideological as personal. A political figure fails to back a candidate who is popular with the mods, and he is promptly labeled an enemy irregardless of voting record, and vice-versa for the Conservatives. Its a nasty game of tit for tat, and one in which Jordan's voting record will matter less in the minds of mods than his failure to back Steve Howe if Howe ends up losing the primary. If Howe wins it won't matter to the mods as much, but Conservatives will attack Jordan for being insufficiently pro-Kline. It is a lose-lose situation guaranteed to damage him either way.

That said, his support for Kline would be less damaging if he had stronger factional moderate creds. While he has a moderate ideological creds, he has never taken a leading role in the conflict until now, and this time he has come in on the Conservative side. Furthermore, knowing a bunch of them, I'm not convinced the mods even want to win back this seat. The annual fiasco in KS-03 has become a way for them avenge their powerlessness at the statewide level, and I am not convinced that they are willing to give it up, or if they are that they would be that disappointed if they lose. Taft was a "moderate" too, and when he finally got the nomination they did nothing for him. We will see.

[Dan the Roman]

I should add - Luetkemeyer appears to be right type of Republican for this CD - socially conservative, economically not too conservative, more of an old-school fiscal conservative (CfG ran ads attacking him) - rural voters are dominant here.

Yeah. The CfG bizarrely attacked him for opposing a gas tax holiday. Why would the CfG, which pretends to be a fiscally conservative group backed by leading economists, attack him for opposing an economically unsound idea?

Key word is "pretends".