It really seems like the RN was overrated. Still not an ideal result of course.
Well yes and no. The RN got blown out in Paris, but it was never going to win any seats there. So the RN did a bit worse regarding percentage margin, but in terms of seats and distribution it was more efficient.
It would as if polls showed a 49-45 Trump lead, with Trump losing NY 56-43 and California 60-39. On election day he wins only 47.7-46.8, but that is largely because he loses NY 64-34 and California 67-31. And that was because of 90%+ white liberal turnout.
To give a specific example, Paris went from 754,000 votes to a million between 2022 and today. However, the NFP gained 138,000. Ensemble 64,000, and other leftwingers another 6,000, none of which had any impact on RN seat totals.
Yes, he under-performed polls, but it had zero impact on the electoral college which looked a lot like projections for a 49-45 result, and didn't even affect House races.
The seat-by-seat results look much more like what one would expect with a 6-7% RN lead. Perhaps even a greater one.
