Its incredible that we've had two summers now where people extrapolate short term surges as lasting indefinitely and forget that COVID is seasonal. In summer it surges in the hot states, in winter it surges in the cold states. We're already seeing cases decline with the weather, and hospitalizations and deaths will follow.
Extrapolating the current death rates as lasting indefinitely is a bit like extrapolating the death rate from the worst week of the 2nd wave in Arizona to conclude that everyone in Arizona was going to die. It's safe to say that when winter comes around it isn't going to be Florida or Mississippi leading in cases or deaths.
You're neglecting the key variable that is different now compared to last year, aren't you?
If you're talking about vaccinations this is a pretty weak argument because Florida's vaccination rate is above average. We also have other countries like Israel to look at which suggest that vaccines, while effective, are less effective than being young or not being obese.
Answer to this question depends on whether this is the last wave. If it is, Florida will hit 55,000 by first week of October, and 57K-60K by end of the year. That is MA range now.
In that case NO. Florida will not overtake.
If, however,
1. Natural Immunity Wears off
2. Vaccine immunity does as well
3. Booster attrition in terms of uptake becomes highly politized
Then Florida could see another wave on par or greater than this one next summer.
I have long felt all the discussion about DeSantis is premature. It is far too soon to say. DeSantis will probably fully recover if this is the last wave. On the otherhand, what i think the last month did is exhaust the patience of many of those who stood by him. If he is right, and if this is the last wave, then standing firm on restrictions will probably have been worth it in the eyes of a majority of Floridians and national Republicans.
If it was for naught, and Florida has a winter wave on par with last year which kills another 10k-12K and then next summer we are back with another 20K dead, I think his support will be very vulnerable to collapsing entirely.
Ironically the die is now cast. DeSantis pivoting now would make no difference. It is all entirely up to unknowables regarding natural immunity and variants. I think it was an error to place himself in a position where his fate hinged on factors he could not control, but there we are.
Florida could end the year at 58K and then drift towards 65K by November 2022. Or it could approach 90K-100K by then.
Poll
