Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY (user search)
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  Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY (search mode)
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Author Topic: Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY  (Read 172422 times)
Dan the Roman
liberalrepublican
Sr. Member
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Posts: 2,643
United States


« on: November 27, 2023, 10:34:27 AM »

Is there still nothing submitted for the congressional maps? What's the hold up?
The congressional mal is unlikely to change since it was already approved by the courts in the past. Most of the focus is the state legislature.

It was also Evers' map and 3/4 Ds voted for it.
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Dan the Roman
liberalrepublican
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,643
United States


« Reply #1 on: December 01, 2023, 11:38:34 AM »

There are good reasons for dems to not challenge the congressional map this cycle.

1)
There is not that much to gain. The congressional maps are not that gerrymandered. Voter distribution in the state is bad for dems.
Under most maps there will be one seat gain for dems.

2)
They have to defend their one seat majority in 2025. Too many controversial high-profile rulings and you risk a backlash. A recent example for that would be NC where dems lost their majority on the supreme court in 2022.

3)
There is a real risk that SCOTUS overturns the ruling and says that state courts have very limited authority to overturn congressional maps.
SCOTUS was close to doing that in the NC case, before republicans took back the majority on the NC SC.


No they were not close to doing that. Roberts would never go for that.

They don't need Roberts right now.

If you believe this is a uniquely conservative court relative to the long run average (reasonable IMO), it could make sense to wait a bit. 

I don't think you could get a majority of even this court to agree to that.

Actually you could get them to adopt the 4-3 WI SC standard which is in the event of a deadlock, courts should not "start from scratch" and absent clear language to the contrary adopt a "least change" approach.

In effect, it would say the power to draw districts goes

Constitution >Congress> state law> Legislatures >state courts

If legislatures have not drawn them, you look to what guidelines congress has passed then the federal constitution. If neither has any reference to proportional representation, state courts cannot invent a requirement that maps be proportional for federal races that takes precedence over the last legally map valid under the federal constitution(ie the previous one).
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