U.N Security Council passes resolution Israeli settlements; the U.S doesn't veto (user search)
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  U.N Security Council passes resolution Israeli settlements; the U.S doesn't veto (search mode)
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Author Topic: U.N Security Council passes resolution Israeli settlements; the U.S doesn't veto  (Read 3902 times)
Dan the Roman
liberalrepublican
Sr. Member
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Posts: 2,644
United States


« on: December 26, 2016, 12:59:45 AM »

But you know this is not a permanent state. In 15 to 20 years, Asia will continue to rise as comparatively US will stagnate in global power to defend everyone & Middle East Arab nations will recover.
While I am dubious about the long term viability of the State of Israel, it would take an extremely unlikely set of circumstances for Israel to not remain in existence for the remainder of this century, let alone be in existential danger within 15 to 20 years.

Provided it keeps them limited to the inevitable ones, the saving grace for Israel is that its enemies are in relatively greater decline in terms of geopolitical relevance than it is. Even absent any sort of shift to renewable, the importance of the Arab states to the world energy market is lower now than in decades, and falling further, and within that group, the shift has been decisively towards states where the "street" does not matter(ie. the Gulf states/Saudis). Arab/Islamic nationalism(let's leave off Islamphobic generalizations about Muslims, the international issue is Islam as a proxy for Pan-Arab nationalist/secessionist movements) is at the same time increasingly an irritation for nations that have no reason to love Israel such as China, India, and the South East Asian states, none of whom share any of the European emotional sympathy for the Palestinians and have a vested interest in opposing "secessionist" and pan-national movements.

Basically if Israel were to play its card right, portray the Palestinians as a secessionist movement backed by outside financial actors and fighters, it could maintain the de facto support of virtually all of the major powers on the planet that are actually rising. Combined with the fact that the relative decline of Europe is much greater than that of the US, and Israel's odds of being better placed v. the Palestinians in forty years would be decent.

But that would require subtlety, knowing how to play the issue, and ensuring it is one of a minority trying to secede from indisputably sovereign territory, rather than a religious or ethnic minority trying to maintain control over a majority. The former cause is also the cause of China, India, Myanmar, Russia, Thailand, and Ethiopia. The latter is the cause of, well, pretty much nobody at this point.
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