It was speculated today that the LibDems might actually gain seats, even if they lose votes overall.
The reasoning behind it: In Tory-LibDem marginals, the Lib->Lab swing is irrelevant. While the LibDems might lose some votes to Labour, the Conservatives will lose even more to UKIP, resulting in LibDem wins.
Any thoughts?
So much of the Liberal Democratic vote since 1992 has been pure anti-system protest votes I would not be so sure that in Lib-Con marginals UKIP will take more from the Tories than the LiDs. It was in Liberal Dem-Con marginals where UKIP tended to make the largest gains in the local elections, taking quite a bit from the Liberal Democrats.
Actually this brings up a larger problem. Ever since Tony Blair served effectively as an SDP/Liberal Prime Minister, there has no real ideological reason for the continued existence of the Liberal party, I the last decade its been a reservoirs for discontented left-wingers, and general protest votes which is the main reason its imploded so fully while in government. Of its 23% in 2010 I would say
8% Solid Liberal
9% Angry Leftist
6% General protest
Its lost most of the 9% to Labour and most of the 6% to UKIP.
