The Official Absentee & Early Voting Reports Thread

[Dan the Roman]

This was mentioned before:

In NC the % of the electorate in 2008 that was black was 21.6.

In 2012, it was 22.4.

While there has been an increase in the black share of the electorate, and black people represent a slighter % of the electorate, it at a lower rate.

2008 (same point in time):  26.7

2012:  27.1

What conclusion might you draw from that, taken along with your observation that Republican early turnout is significantly higher than in 2008? Recall that Obama stressed early voting in both elections, while Republicans only stressed it this election.

Well, a few people pointed to the proportional increase in black voters and it will account for a slight increase in the black proportion of the electorate.  It will not be proportional to the number of registered black voters. 

Basically, there are more black voters in 2012 in NC, but the proportion of those that turn out will decline.

Hypothetically, assume that there is a constituency A.  In 2008, these were the numbers:

10,000 black voters:

75% turn out

7500 black voters turn out

In 2012:

12,000 black voters

73% turn out

8760 black voters turn out. 

Those are just hypothetical numbers, but I wanted to note that, in such cases, it wouldn't be 9,000. 

Interesting, but unlikely to be true in reality.

Currently, with one day of Early voting left, and with over 50% of the vote in

46% of Registered African Americans
36% of Registered Whites
30% Others

Have voted. African American turnout % should be pretty close to the white one if not exceeding it.

[Dan the Roman]

This was mentioned before:

In NC the % of the electorate in 2008 that was black was 21.6.

In 2012, it was 22.4.

While there has been an increase in the black share of the electorate, and black people represent a slighter % of the electorate, it at a lower rate.

2008 (same point in time):  26.7

2012:  27.1

North Carolina

2008:
Age
18-29      14.9%   
30-44      23.5%   


2012:
Age   
18-29   12.2%
30-44   20.9%





The white Democrats who have dropped out of the pool are in the <45 agegroup. For instance, 25 year olds cast over 30,000 votes in 2008 and 22,000 votes thus far in 2012. Youth turnout is at 2004ish levels, at least here.

Also true

[Dan the Roman]

Not in Cuyahoga for in house early voting, lol.  They lost another 1000 compared to the same day in 08. 

http://boe.cuyahogacounty.us/pdf_boe/en-US/2012/2008_2012InHouseVotingDailyComparison.pdf

GMU site shows overall Cuyahoga down 9% and Franklin down 16% since 08..

You guys know Hamilton is going GOP right, so don't get excited that it's going to hit it's 08 numbers or exceed

Updating is terrible right now.

At the moment Cuyathoga is at 240K, not including early voting today. Assuming those numbers are complete, actual numbers are at 243K, 9K less than 2008, and 96% of the total for that year.

Franklin numbers are way above whats on the GMU site. Without today's inperson numbers, they are at 213K rather than the 176K reported on the GMU site.

If you are going to use the county sites, dont be a complete hack. Actually use the numbers on the county sites rather than picking and choosing numbers from different dates to try and spread bs.

[Dan the Roman]

Pardon me, I don't have Franklin counties link, I only have Cuyahoga and GMU so I'm not trying to be a hack.  If you've got it post it.  Cuyahoga isn't up today it's down.  Mccain counties are up big through EVing.  Maybe Franklin is up, it's going to be too little. 

Sorry about that.

Cuyathoga - 240K
http://boe.cuyahogacounty.us/pdf_boe/en-US/2012/AbsenteeVoterbyCityReport11062012.pdf

Franklin - 213K
http://vote.franklincountyohio.gov/absentee/absentee-district-counts.cfm

[Dan the Roman]

FYI,

the #s I ran earlier are correct on the overall down. I ran your #s vs the 08 #s and they came out the same.  Evidently GMU has his % of 2008 vote # updated correctly (if you calculate based on the 12' EV # he shows it's lower than the % he actually has listed)


Cuyahoga is down 9% and Franklin is down 16% vs 08.

Sorry then, apparently he made the error.

[Dan the Roman]

Pardon me, I don't have Franklin counties link, I only have Cuyahoga and GMU so I'm not trying to be a hack.  If you've got it post it.  Cuyahoga isn't up today it's down.  Mccain counties are up big through EVing.  Maybe Franklin is up, it's going to be too little. 

Sorry about that.

Cuyathoga - 240K


Franklin - 213K

I'm new here but don't those numbers only include mail ballots and not early in person votes, which mean the vote totals are actually higher for both counties?

In Cuyathoga, its confirmed they include both. In Franklin its implied. The totals went up around 4000 today despite their being no mail. Given 2600 votes in Cuyathoga, that would seem like about the number of absentees dropped off+plus early votes.

The bigger issue is that the counties do weird things with counting absentees. Cuyathoga was at 200K on Thursday night. They seem to have used the half-day on saturday not just for the early voting, but to sort absentees that had arrived earlier. This means a lot of counties may have large backlogs of unsorted absentees.

I actually have a friend who is fairly hooked in with the Ohio GOP who says that a majority of the counties are borderline incompetent, there is no consistency of any sort, data from different periods is lumped together without any effort to keep it separate.

Take the Cuyathoga PDF. Those numbers were posted at Noon which means they don't include todays inperson numbers, but then updated after the inperson numbers, with a smaller net increase than the inperson votes cast today despite those numbers being publicly available.

All Ohio numbers should be treated as minimums, not maximums for turnout. Odds are its actually at least 5% higher than being shown online.

Also, only 55 counties are even reporting numbers to the SOS at all, which mean the State's own numbers are off.

Florida has the exact same problem.

[Dan the Roman]

Near final Cuyathoga numbers.

2012: 249,403
2008(on Tuesday, not total processed): 252,629

Franklin Numbers

2012: 222,068
2008:207,243