Venezuelan 2010 Election

[Dan the Roman]

Don't know enough about Venezuelan politics, but I do know that up to now at least, Venezuela is the only country in the world consistently ranked higher than Greece as a sovereign default probability, according to CMA Datavision (see my sig). If inflation is as out of control as some claim and a recession as bad a some claim, my instinct would be that Chavez is finally invincible no more.

His loss in the 2007 referendum would lead to that conclusion. The raw vote totals for the 2009 vote would then lead to the conclusion that it may not matter.

[Dan the Roman]

Where do the sypathies of the army lie? Chávez was of course an officer, but did the army support him in his coup attempt? Where did the army stand during the attempted coup against Chávez?

The army has been thoroughly purged, but as Allende proved, no matter who you put in charge, political pressure tends to drive it in the same direction. The Army will back Chavez as long as it is expedient to do so, and probably not a lot longer.

The real battle here will be post election. The opposition will do well, perhaps get over 50%, but not win a majority of seats. They will cry fraud, Chavez will call them spies and traitors, they will go out into the streets, and riots will break out. After that who knows? Obama doesn't seem to care though.