2010 Primaries Thread (It's all over now, baby blue)

[Dan the Roman]

Generally agree with those, with the caveat that I think Snyder will pull it out. Everyone else has serious flaws, with Hoekstra having the least, though having been present when he was briefed on Pakistani politics once while he chaired the intelligence committee, suffice to say I got a very unimpressive impression.

[Dan the Roman]

Just a few thousand votes counted in MI so far:

Hoekstra 50%
Snyder 21%
Cox 20%
Bouchard 7%

That's only 0.4% of precincts reporting though.  

The thing is that Snyder seems to be performing very similarly to how Karen Handel did in Georgia. She lost most of the state, but she was a close second in most of her opponents strongholds, so her own was able to carry her to victory. Its early but thats the image I am getting.

[Dan the Roman]

I think Snyder has this.

Why is Upton in trouble though?

[Dan the Roman]

2 precincts left - Benishek up by 39 votes.  The last 3 precincts in Iosco were not favorable for him.  Probably will be about a tie.

27,058  27,160

B's lead seem to have expanded to 102 votes, without any more precincts coming in. And there you have it. Two precincts still out in Bay County, which Allen is carrying by a bit. Those two precincts won't generate a 100 vote margin however, I don't think. So Allen needs some votes to come in or something like for B without any more precincts coming in. Stay tuned.

And maybe there are some late absentees or overseas votes left to be counted anyway. I assume there will be a recount.

Well the last two precincts came in, and there was no vote change! No precincts come in and the vote changes, and then precincts come in, and there is no vote change. Fancy that. So the TP man has a final 102 vote lead for the night, it seems. Of course, it may be the last two precincts in Bay came in, and favored the guy otherwise losing the county, the obverse of Iosco, but the input guy forgot to change the precincts counted number.

Total   508/508   27,058 27,160

And now this morning, Benishek's vote total went down without any change for Allen (27,070 to 27,058). That leaves Benishek with a 12 vote lead. Michigan has an automatic recount provision, and I would assume this is close enough, if the law applies to congressional primaries.

Its now down to one vote. Given regional polarization, does anyone think the GOP's shot in the general here took and enormous dive?

[Dan the Roman]

Its now down to one vote. Given regional polarization, does anyone think the GOP's shot in the general here took and enormous dive?

I doubt it.  Some of the regional polarization might be explained by TV market - the Marquette and Wisconsin markets versus Traverse City.  I'll try to do more analysis if I have time tonight.

I got the impression Benishek won the UP vote based on regionalism. I would think that if Allen pulls this out in a recount, especially with SEIU help, the UP vote might not be there for him in the general.

[Dan the Roman]

http://107.housedems.com/district-map/

Cheboygan County (part)
Koehler township
Tuscarora township
Chippewa County
Emmet County
Mackinac County
 

[Dan the Roman]

On one hand, the Republicans hold a narrow lead, which might be a good sign for them. On the other hand, they actually had a contested "primary", so Democratic turnout might be higher in the general election.

They won't hold that narrow lead at the end of the count. Half of King county, including virtually all of Seattle is still out. And probably 70%+ of the outstanding votes are in counties where the Democrats are over 50%. In the final count the Democrats should be between 51-52%.

After looking at the estimated outstanding ballots, there are about 242,000 of them, of which about 115,000 are in counties where the Democrats are over 50%, with 86,000 in King's, Snomish and Thurston. So the final should probably be a narrow, 50 -49ish Democratic lead.

[Dan the Roman]

On one hand, the Republicans hold a narrow lead, which might be a good sign for them. On the other hand, they actually had a contested "primary", so Democratic turnout might be higher in the general election.

They won't hold that narrow lead at the end of the count. Half of King county, including virtually all of Seattle is still out. And probably 70%+ of the outstanding votes are in counties where the Democrats are over 50%. In the final count the Democrats should be between 51-52%.

Uh, not really. They're perhaps a bit underrepresented relative to the rest of the state at the moment, but certainly not to the extent you're suggesting. What is your source anyway?

Sorry, redid the math. It probably will come out about equal. But I did from the CD's reporting on Politico. the 3rd, 4th and 5th districts are at 71%, 73% and 67% in, the 7th is at only 44% and the 1st at 51%.  And within the 5th, the largest portion out is in Spokane, where the combined GOP total is only around 54%. King is half out, and the reporting split between the 8th and 7th implies that their is a bias within it towards the more GOP areas.

[Dan the Roman]

On one hand, the Republicans hold a narrow lead, which might be a good sign for them. On the other hand, they actually had a contested "primary", so Democratic turnout might be higher in the general election.

They won't hold that narrow lead at the end of the count. Half of King county, including virtually all of Seattle is still out. And probably 70%+ of the outstanding votes are in counties where the Democrats are over 50%. In the final count the Democrats should be between 51-52%.

Actually, the lead was only about 12,000 votes, since Goodspaceguy "prefers" the Democratic party.

That was the other thing. I was combining all of the Democrats.

[Dan the Roman]

Wow, PPP went out on a limb here and seems to have been right on the Governors race.

[Dan the Roman]

GOP turnout in Florida is just swamping the Dem turnout, something like 1,250,000 GOP to 870,000 Dem. With more registered Dems, that is pretty shocking.

McCollum and Scott have spent far more money in total and conservative Dixiecrats had little reason to turn out for Greene/Meek.

You might be amused to find out that FL-2 Dem turnout was not that far off 2008 Dem Prez primary turnout.  In some places, it was higher.  Especially in the white rural areas.

Of course that primary had issues which kept turnout down.

[Dan the Roman]

Paton losing to Kelly in AZ-08. If it wasn't for the Brewer/Immigration thing that would probably move the seat to likely Democrat, but even a normally unelectable nut like Kelly can probably make it a race in this environment.

[Dan the Roman]

Parnell not doing so hot either.

[Dan the Roman]

I think thats off. Going by Swingstate's numbers, he went from 47,027 to 48,051 which means Murkowski won 1367-1024.  

Out of the first 2391 votes, Murkowski won 1367 or a bit over 57%, which if it continues will bring her into the lead by around 150 votes or so. That of course is a big if.

[Dan the Roman]

Anyone else note the nearly 10,000 vote gap between the Democratic primary for Governor and Senate in terms of votes cast? I know people tend to leave uncontested races blank, but thats nearly a 25% abstention rate on top of whatever the original one was.

[Dan the Roman]

Just voted. Was unsure which ballot to take, but the downballot stuff on the D side got toe me.

Governor
Write in(voting Baker)

AG
Coakley

Auditor
Mike Lake(will vote Connaughton in the general)(Was split between Glodis who I think is weaker in the general, and of the two candidates who would not be a complete disgrace)

Treasurer
Murphy(opposite reasoning as Auditor)

Congress/Legislature
No Opponents

Executive Council
Whoever is challenging the incumbent, usually a good bet

[Dan the Roman]

Perry has won in MA-10. If he is leading in Plymouth, then Malone is in serious trouble. On the Dem a lot closer, as Keating, unlike Malone, is getting good margins out of his base on the south shore. It will come down to turnout in Quincy.

[Dan the Roman]

I think its going to be Keating v. O'Leary, which is a normal year would be lean Democrat. That said, its a Cape v. the South Shore race, which should help Perry clean up there.

[Dan the Roman]

Suzanne Bump is beating the execrable Guy Glodis for Massachusetts Auditor, 49-32. Mr. Moderate's BFF Mary Connaughton is at 86%. Grossman is winning big for Treasurer, 63-37.

Mixed feelings. Glodis would have lost to Connaughton, but that would have required risking him becoming Auditor. I couldn't bring himself to vote for him.

[Dan the Roman]

Seeing whats out I am feeling much better about Ayotte.

[Dan the Roman]

Bill Keating wins in MA-10

These primary results are not encouraging for him. He got killed on the Cape, whereas Perry tied on the South Shore. If it is regional, Perry might be in good shape.

[Dan the Roman]

These primary results are not encouraging for him. He got killed on the Cape, whereas Perry tied on the South Shore. If it is regional, Perry might be in good shape.

Can you read intraprimary regional splits onto interparty contests? Why would any Democrat on the cape vote for Keating? I'm asking sincerely. Malone isn't a regional candidate the way Perry, Keating, and O'Leary were and unlike O'Leary he pulled few votes. I guess I'm asking whether O'Leary's strength is being misinterpreted as Keating's weaknesses.

The regional split will come from the fact that Perry is from the Cape whereas Keating is not. Norfolk County is very different than the rest of the district, and while Keating will clean up there, regionalism should help Perry consolidate what Republican vote there is on the Cape. By contrast, there is limited GOP strength in Norfolk, and in a race between Keating and Norfolk candidate the Cape would have no incentive other than partisan identification.

I still have concerns that Perry is far too right-wing to win the seat. He definitely is to hold it long-term.

[Dan the Roman]

Guinta is performing quite poorly. Reinforces what i have heard about him running a bad campaign.