Saturday, August 21, 2010 - Australian Federal Election

[Dan the Roman]

I would not be surprised if the two-party vote is off. South Australia should be a warning in that respect. Of course, I expect a late swing to Gillard.

[Dan the Roman]

What caused Gillard to gain back her footing in the last week of the campaign? It seemed like Abbott was gaining a lead until recently.

1. She stopped he bleeding.

2. It became a close race. When Labor had a lopsided lead, no one paid attention to Tony Abbott because his winning was an impossibility. As a consequence, people focused on how unhappy they were with Labor, with how Rudd was ousted, with aspects the campaign, etc. When Abbott actually becoming Prime Minister became a real prospect, Labor had a message and went over to the offensive, and it looks like a number of voters recoiled at the prospect. Now whether that is enough of them is an open question, and I am interested mainly because I suspect Obama's reelection campaign in 2012 may largely mirror Gillard's.

[Dan the Roman]

It became a close race. When Labor had a lopsided lead, no one paid attention to Tony Abbott because his winning was an impossibility. As a consequence, people focused on how unhappy they were with Labor, with how Rudd was ousted, with aspects the campaign, etc. When Abbott actually becoming Prime Minister became a real prospect, Labor had a message and went over to the offensive, and it looks like a number of voters recoiled at the prospect. Now whether that is enough of them is an open question, and I am interested mainly because I suspect Obama's reelection campaign in 2012 may largely mirror Gillard's.

That sounds like the Swedish election. The opposition leading quite a bit because people mostly focus on being unhappy with the incubent goverment, but as the election draws closer people starts to realise that don't actually want the awful leader of the opposition as PM, and even though they're not completely happy  with the goverment the other alternative is even worse, and thus making the race a tie.

Its the general pattern of a lot of elections. Built-up resentment tends to bubble up early in campaigns, with the opposition being a convenient outlet. Its at that critical point when the opposition begins to pull ahead that everyone begins to look at them as a potential government rather than an opposition. And a lot of them fail that test. See Stephen Harper in 2004, Mockas in Columbia, and I would argue, even Kerry in the US. Of course if they pass that test you get something resembling the 1980 Presidential race.

[Dan the Roman]

It became a close race. When Labor had a lopsided lead, no one paid attention to Tony Abbott because his winning was an impossibility. As a consequence, people focused on how unhappy they were with Labor, with how Rudd was ousted, with aspects the campaign, etc. When Abbott actually becoming Prime Minister became a real prospect, Labor had a message and went over to the offensive, and it looks like a number of voters recoiled at the prospect. Now whether that is enough of them is an open question, and I am interested mainly because I suspect Obama's reelection campaign in 2012 may largely mirror Gillard's.

That sounds like the Swedish election. The opposition leading quite a bit because people mostly focus on being unhappy with the incubent goverment, but as the election draws closer people starts to realise that don't actually want the awful leader of the opposition as PM, and even though they're not completely happy  with the goverment the other alternative is even worse, and thus making the race a tie.

Its the general pattern of a lot of elections. Built-up resentment tends to bubble up early in campaigns, with the opposition being a convenient outlet. Its at that critical point when the opposition begins to pull ahead that everyone begins to look at them as a potential government rather than an opposition. And a lot of them fail that test. See Stephen Harper in 2004, Mockas in Columbia, and I would argue, even Kerry in the US. Of course if they pass that test you get something resembling the 1980 Presidential race.

Happened in the UK too I guess, only not so strongly and we ended up with a hung parliament with the opposition as the only viable government. 6-12 months earlier, everyone expected them to walk it and end up with majority of 50-80.

At the time they were polling Labour's unpopularity, rather than Cameron's support. That Cameron was an inoffensive empty suit. It also meant however, that when the focus shifted to him the drop was greater. He clawed it back because of the chaos of the Liberal surge.