Turnout will of course be much lower and a bit different than 08, but 08 vote of McCain 51%, Obama 44%? LMAO
PPP has it as a McCain +4 sample.
Oh I have no doubt it will be more Republican than 2008, and McCain voters probably would outnumber Obama voters slightly if it was held now.
I have the same concerns however over these polls that many had with the Obama up 13 or 14, or Democrats up 18 on the generic ballot last year. August has been a disasterious month for the Democrats, focus on the election is low, and many are protesting Obama dropping a public option. My question to these pollster would be, not that they should stop using likely voter models, but that they should at least stop and ask what is plausible. I think McCain +1 or +2 might happen. I doubt in November it will be +4 or +7.
The other problem is what I am interested in right now is how the thesis story is effecting the race. In order to measure that I need samples that are roughly comparable, and the unstable likely voter screens are making that impossible. We now have to wait until the next round of polls to make measurements.
