2009 New Jersey Governor's Race

[Brittain33]

And another thing, Coburn here obviously has no idea what Leninism is either, which makes it all the more amusing when I see him misuse that and similar political terms.

Didn't we agree he's a joke poster?

[Brittain33]

Besides, I think some amount of regression (or progression) back to the GOP is occurring in VA among moderates/independents/Obama voters that I don't see in NJ.

Yes. I am curious to see what Virginia government is like in the next few years. The results yesterday are a dramatic setback for the VA Dems' planned march back to the majority which had been going so well for so long. I'm not surprised by McDonnell, because people forget how Warner and Kaine had to do absolutely everything right in order to eke out narrow wins; but the Dems really were doing well legislatively in growth areas in recent years. Democrats may well be cursing that one-seat margin in the senate when the time comes for the budget.

[Brittain33]

I love how counterintuitive that map is.  This has to be, literally, the first time a Republican has ever won the state of New Jersey without carrying Bergen.  And to do it while carrying Middlesex... man, this is why I love politics.

I suppose this makes Middlesex officially a Parkway county now. With Christie doing well in Woodbridge and Sayreville, you could make a case for that.

My family is in Middlesex and the taxes are incredible. Unlike Bergen, you don't have any prestige or pretty townscapes with cute railway stations to go along with it, although the schools are decent.

[Brittain33]

From a quick look at overall demographics, Middlesex and Bergen don't seem to be all that different fwiw. Details of the differences would be nice

I'm a little fuzzy on my knowledge of Bergen. I would say that Bergen is more polarized economically, with poorer cities yoked to more affluent suburbs. Middlesex has a few poor areas, but by and large it is middle class and lower middle class suburbia planted on flat farmland and swamps. Middlesex has a booming S. Asian population which is more economically diverse than S. Asian communities elsewhere in the country, which is one way of saying that it's more than just a highly educated elite. Middlesex has old working class factory towns and mill towns (including one called, literally, Milltown) that have been leavened with suburban development over the years; I'm not sure Bergen ever had that kind of non-metropolitan industrial presence. I get the sense you still have young families setting up en masse in Middlesex while in Bergen the suburbs are older and costlier to break into.

Middlesex is Long Island to Bergen's Westchester, I suppose. There are a lot of problems with that comparison. Middlesex never had a Republican machine.

It's interesting to note that Middlesex was one of the first parts of the state to drift back to the Democrats after the anti-Florio tax revolt. Democrats picked up a few Assembly seats there in '97.

[Brittain33]

A black eye for Christie's administration... his state lost $400 million in Race to the Top funds for schools because his education commissioner (Bret Schundler) didn't complete the form correctly and didn't have the information needed when asked.

http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2010/08/gov_chris_christie_asks_nj_sch.html

Not good to fumble the ball when you're already making the case for tightening school budgets.

[Brittain33]

Here's a clearer version of the timeline.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2010/08/27/politics/main6811118.shtml

Christie blames Obama administration, states version of events, video released showing that Christie's version of events was based on Schundler lying to him to cover his ass, Christie looks foolish and sacks Schundler, NJ still out $400 million.

[Brittain33]

According to Ras, 49% blame Schundler for the screw up; 33% blame Christie.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_state_surveys/new_jersey/49_in_new_jersey_blame_education_commissioner_for_race_to_the_top_loss_33_blame_governor

I read the correction to the correction that put the blame on Christie and I still can't figure out what exactly happened. If Schundler ever planned to make himself the wronged party here, he blew it by asking to be fired so he could unemployment benefits.

[Brittain33]

For him to have a positive approval rating after all of the "controversy" is very good. For him to be near or over 50% is great. All of this is outstanding though because he's the Governor of New Jersey. Ratings like these are rare for any statewide elected official in that state.

Corzine had ratings over 50 with low disapprovals in these polls in 2005... trying to find his ratings in 2002 on the web but not successful. I'm not sure if he had <50 in polls between 2001 and 2005, not sure why he would other than "it's NJ."

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1299.xml?ReleaseID=661

[Brittain33]

Well, it didn't last long when we won the Governorship. 

I can't parse what you mean by that.

[Brittain33]

Oh, I messed up my timeline because I forgot about McGreevey... Point taken.