Why Obama is competing in Florida...

[Brittain33]

...even though Bush won it by 5 points in 2004 and demographically the state was more Hillary than Barack.

The economy's in the crapper, hit hard by the construction bust and speculation. The exurbs are hurting. People who voted Republican most fervently are among those who are most worst off after four years. Does this mean that the people here are representative of voters across the state and will support Obama? Not necessarily. Does it make the state more volatile than places like the Deep South? Absolutely. Things can happen.

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-exurbs12-2008aug12,0,6209867.story

[Brittain33]

Of course, the LA Times has one of these types of stories every few weeks, so caveat emptor.  I do suspect Obama will perform better than Kerry in exurbs, but this probably has more to do with a decline in enthusiasm if anything. 

Makes sense to me. I doubt Obama picks up more than a few votes in places like this, but not having the massive turnout Bush got would help him.