Diaz-Balarts: Which is more vulnerable?

[Brittain33]

Write-in: The entire human race via meteor strike.

Yeah, and Sue Kelly and Charlie Bass were beloved centrists who were never going to lose... the history and record are what they are, but these guys have never been seriously challenged by viable candidates before in a dramatically changing environment. Maybe they'll cruise to reelection this year, but until they do, it's hubristic to presume that nothing has changed. On too many economic criteria, these seats are outliers for voting Republican. Anything can be explained by "all Cuban voters vote Republican and don't care about domestic policy" but I don't think one can argue that factor is set in stone until it's withstood one serious test.

[Brittain33]

Isn't there a difference between believing there's a possibility of a change vs. categorically ruling it out? Only one of them is an absolute statement, and there is at least some reason to think there could be change, whereas there's no reason to think Obama's going to carry Kentucky or NE-3 is going to vote Democratic or whatever.

The Diaz-Balarts have never had serious challengers before and now face two credible Cuban-American Democrats in an unfavorable year, at a time when the Cuban-American community is undergoing tremendous demographic change and the economy in that part of the country is in the pits. If the pundits are putting these districts on watch lists, that means it's not just Democratic hackery to say they are less safe than suburban Texas or Mormon districts.

[Brittain33]

CQPolitics.com:

Biggest surprise: Minnesota Republican Michele Bachmann insisted her reputation as an outspoken social conservative put her right in line with voters in Minnesota’s 6th District, which reaches from suburbs of Minneapolis-St. Paul to the city of St. Cloud.

I thought the anti-Republican climate would seriously hinder Bachmann, as would the apparent strength of her opponent, Patty Wetterling. The Democrat ran a viable campaign in 2004 against the Republican incumbent, Mark Kennedy, who left the seat open this year for a Senate bid that failed.

Wetterling, well known for years as a child safety advocate who had suffered the personal tragedy of losing a son, also had gained visibility late in the campaign as a sharp critic of the Republican leadership’s handling of the Foley page scandal.

Well, I wouldn't have ranked that as "biggest surprise," however Bachmann's sizable margin of victory over Wetterling was a surprise. So is the fact that Bachmann ran better* against Wetterling than Kennedy did, considering Kennedy's reputation as God's gift to the Republican Party. Who predicted that?

*I don't know if she ran better in absolute terms, but considering she was a non-incumbent running in a much worse year, she did relatively much better than he did.