InTrade Presidential odds

[Brittain33]

Can you short Virginia? 60% chance for Obama there is ludicrous.

[Brittain33]

Biden is easily the third most likely person to be the next President. It's the electoral college tie + hung House scenario.

The Democrats do only need 26 of their 27 state delegations to get an outright majority in the House.

This group includes Tennessee, West Virginia, South Dakota, North Dakota, North Carolina, Arkansas, Mississippi... while some of those delegations are likely to support Obama, I wouldn't want to place bets that no more than one of Lincoln Davis, Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin, Heath Shuler, Gene Taylor, and Travis Childers decides not to vote against the large majority of his state and possibly his district.

[Brittain33]

don't forget the Dems are likely to net around ten seats in the upcoming House elections.  I haven't analyzed how that impacts the state delegations, but it isn't going to hurt.

Larry Kissell would be a vote for Obama and solidify the NC delegation against a Shuler defection.

Ohio could be a tie, Republican-led, or Democrat-led depending on OH-15 and OH-1, as I assume OH-16 goes Democratic.

N.H. could flip back to a tie, with the Republican rep. representing a district that voted for McCain.

Arizona goes from a tie to Democratic.

Alaska likely flips to Democratic with a conflicted rep.

Kansas could go from split to Republican.