NY-13: Rep. Vito Fossella arrested for drunk driving

[Brittain33]

Of course, getting incumbents out of NY seats is almost harder than Obama winning West Virginia against Clinton (for example), but who knows. 

I don't really see that, not in comparison to states like in the South where incumbents rarely do seem to lose. New York voters unseated Sue Kelly, John Sweeney, and very nearly Jim Walsh in '06, Felix Grucci in '02, Daniel Frisa in '96, and George Hochbrueckner in '94. Tom Reynolds would have lost against a viable challenger and Randy Kuhl eked out a 3-point win.

[Brittain33]

I don't really see how that proves your point.

There are states that almost never vote out their incumbent House members. You could make good arguments why lots of people should lose in any give year, but very few of them do. Even in 2006, only 22 Republicans lost, 2 of them in New York.

When New York representatives are more likely than reps in the average state to get ousted, it's hard to believe it's impossible for a rep to lose. If Fossella loses, it would be just as easy to explain it away as a scandal, a bad year for Republicans, too Democratic a district, etc. except that we can make those arguments now, today.

What I think the root of this is is that New York, as a state, seems to have a pro-incumbent bias in Presidential elections. It's one reason Bill Clinton swept the state and all its CD's in 1996. However, that's not the same as having ouster-proof Congressmen. That's more common in states with much less two-party competition within districts. New York has far more districts close to PVI +0, and compared to our sad record of incumbency nationwide, those people have a risk of losing.

[Brittain33]

(2006) Wave election

(1996) a strong candidate in a good year.

(1994) wave election...

What I get from this is that you're presuming 2008 to be a status quo election, like 2000 or 2004, and not a year that favors one party strongly, as in the other examples you cited above. NTTAWWT, but that explains the source of our disagreement. I expect it to be a good year for Democrats this year, as good or better than 2006 (although there aren't 30 targets within reasonable reach) and that a damaged incumbent in a marginal district in N.Y. is vulnerable in a way he wasn't in other years. 

[Brittain33]

Just saw this picture. When he was still their leader, Tom Delay should have trained all of his followers and supporters in the caucus about the proper way to prevent a mug shot from becoming this kind of negative:

[Brittain33]

Neither of these examples disprove your theory that NY House incumbents are generally invincible.

Where are the states where competent incumbents get tossed out on a regular basis, absent redistricting?

[Brittain33]

I never meant to imply that an entire state has propensity for dumping incumbents on a "regular basis." Rather, I was agreeing with that New York incumbents usually retire on their own terms.

I understand what you're saying, and I am sorry if I am being tiresome by disagreeing, but I find it frustrating that people would choose to hand-wave away the many examples of New York incumbents being defeated when, as a rule, the only people who do get defeated are those in circumstances similar to those many losers, and that there are states where incumbents don't lose even in spite of scandal. Massachusetts being a prime example since the Republicans were knocked out; Studds and Frank were reelected. When was the last time a federal incumbent in South Carolina was defeated? How about Louisiana?

I'm not the one making the strong argument; it's the one you're agreeing with that I haven't seen stand up to scrutiny.

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I would argue that it isn't the "quintessential" example, but pretty much an extreme case that has notoriety because so few districts are like that. In addition, its reputation derives from the 1980s, and not only had it been under a bat-sh**t crazy Republican for 12 years, turning over only in the wave years that "don't count," but Ellsworth will have that seat for as long as he wants it, by common consensus.

The Ohio Valley is one part of the country that has seen more turnover than average. By that, I mean the districts abutting the river itself.

[Brittain33]

From today's New York Times:

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[Brittain33]

Headline:

"Vito Fossella & pal were pickled at pub, had to be kicked out, waiters say"

http://weeurl.bantha.org/?www.nydailynews.com-nws-2008-b8f1r

[Brittain33]

Locals react in the New York Times.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/07/nyregion/07fossella.html

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[Brittain33]

The Washington Post says: Republican and Democratic insiders all expect Fossella not to run for reelection this year.

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/sleuth/2008/05/the_consensus_on_capitol_hill.html

The implication is that it's not just the drunk driving but the likelihood of his having a mistress.

[Brittain33]

I'll give more details on what I see here later.  Too bad for Dems Hillary isn't the candidate here.  Obama will be a definite drag in this area of the world. 

I just don't see the President determining the outcome of Congressional elections so directly this year. I concede that I'm biased, but I figure that swing voters are going to vote against Republicans for Congress all over places like Staten Island this fall, even if they decide they can't vote for a black man for President and opt for McCain. I also don't see people staying home because of it, either. They're mad and they're going to take it out on someone.

[Brittain33]

He's still a potential drag, as I'm sure you would admit.

Could you explain what you mean by "potential drag"?

I can't conceive of a reasonable scenario where Obama behaves in such a way to cause voters to switch from Democratic to Republican on downballot races. I agree that he faces hurdles getting the votes of S.I. voters who would have supported Clinton. However, I would like to hear the argument that Obama on the ticket causes Democrats to lose a House seat they would have won otherwise. I find it too easy to imagine people coming out to vote for McCain because they don't like Obama and don't want a Black President but still voting Democratic for the House because they're pissed at gas prices and the war.

[To distance myself from them, of course voting for or against any politician based on gas prices is stupid.]

[Brittain33]

As well as being so strong on family values that he has two of them to love and cherish, Fossella also won't go anywhere near those evil, sinful homosexuals.  Like his own sister, for example.

Ok, that vaporizes any sympathy I had for that guy.

[Brittain33]

A lot.  This will probably be the last one, however, barring future scandal.

I'm sure at least one joker will wait until after the filing deadline so he can grease the skids for a chief of staff or son to get the nomination through other means.

[Brittain33]

Republican top prospect Donovan said no, which makes this race more appealing for the Democrats involved.

[Brittain33]

Winner right thur

Chris Matthews can smell the Aqua Velva and Old Spice from 200 miles away.