Which legislative chamber is most likely to flip in 08?
Here's a link to a map of current composition:
http://www.ncsl.org/statevote/StateVote2008.htmMy list:
NY Senate (R->D)
• I still think this year is the year, based on what happened in '04 and the win in the North County when Spitzer was deeply unpopular but not yet scandalized. Too many targets, too many low-information voters for Republicans to hold out.
Nevada Senate (R->D)
• Prediction made out of complete ignorance of candidates and opportunities, only that they've been drifting toward the Dems out of a long-term N.Y.-style arrangement, Dems only need one seat, and the economy is in a real estate bust that has got to have people feeling insecure about neighborhoods and schools.
Indiana House (D->R)
• '06 was a great year to be a Democrat in Indiana, and Mitch Daniels appears to have stopped the bleeding. I would imagine Presidential voting habits are enough to enable a net gain of one or two seats in the House.
Oklahoma Senate (split->R)
• NCSL says it was split; I don't know if that's the case, but again, the recovery from '06 to '08 and presidential voting is going to favor Republicans over Democrats.
Alaska Senate (R->D)
• Quite close already and the state Republican Party is having meltdown from top to bottom over corruption while Democrats will have the first full slate of strong federal candidates in my memory. No, this does not mean I think Obama will do well here.
If people are well-informed about micro issues (candidates, term limits, etc.) that would drive changes, I'd love to hear about it.
