Election models megathread

[Brittain33]

The senate model is clearly underestimating Republicans due to reliance on polls, the GOP has outperformed what the polls said in the Senate 4 cycles in a row, 2014, 2016, 2018 and 2020, in all 4 cycles the GOP won more senate seats than most projected, no reason to believe the polls have corrected for the bias.

I know that’s true for 3 of the elections, but are you sure about 2018? I thought the results matched the polls in the Senate then - it was only Democrat hopium that was defeated.

[Brittain33]

Yes: my big takeaway on election night 2018 is that a bunch more seats could have gone Republican if anyone had realized they were competitive. Models overstated the margins big time in some races Democrats won, implying they were completely safe: Ohio (11.6 vs. 6.80), Michigan (11.3 vs. 6.5), West Virginia (7.5 vs. 3.3). And massively understated Blackburn (5.3 vs. 10.80) and Cramer (4.6 vs. 10.80).

I understand the frustration at seeing elections written of as uncompetitive finish off close, but I don’t think you can draw the conclusion that they could have swung even further to a Republican win. Midterm turnout in 2018 was extremely high, more like a Presidential election, which was unprecedented. The surge in invisible Republican voters was already banked in the elections finishing closer than projected - that shows how some people were missed by polls or avoided them. But with polarization and turnout so high, there was no reservoir of untapped voters OR swing voters who would have gone the other way that would have pushed a Renacci over the top. To expect that is to count those invisible Republican voters twice - once when the candidates overperformed the polls, and a second time “if they only knew…” but they can only vote once.

[Brittain33]

We're literally about to enter a recession, all fundamentals point to a red wave and all these Demohacks can come up with is "muh Dobbs" and "muh summer polls". Gets old.

Did it occur to you that the Republican Party having solid control of the Supreme Court and handing down unpopular laws may have scrambled the calculus on who “the party in power is” just a bit vs. past elections?

[Brittain33]

Why is it that switching from the Deluxe to Classic model on 538 dramatically improves Dem’s chances of holding the Senate, but has absolutely no effect on their chances of holding the House?

Different polling results.

[Brittain33]

Something really seem to shoot up Dems chances today at 538.

Barnes +7?

[Brittain33]

We could also have a systematic Polling Error. In 2016, 2018 and 2020 every single time Pollsters undercounted the Shy Trump Vote.

On the contrary, in 2018 Democrats did much better than predicted in the House - 40 seats was at or above the upper limits of what people expected. Polls underestimated partisanship, which is why people remember Republicans winning Senate seats handily in Missouri and Indiana as some kind of surprise, but of course Dems weren’t expected to unseat so many incumbent House Rs.

[Brittain33]

Can anyone explain why you can declare all Senate races and end up with a 1% chance of a different result?

[Brittain33]

Their house prediction right now is 223-212 in GOP's favor. I could definitely buy that right now.

Agreed, that's where my gut is. A Republican House by about as narrow a margin as Pelosi had, but not too close.

[Brittain33]

Dem House chances now 1 point ahead of Republican Senate chances on 538 default

[Brittain33]

Nate Silver: The Polls Still Do Not Show A GOP Bounce Back

Much to the chagrin of Josh K and Sean T's wishcasting.

They are still yearning for the election to be about Drag Queen Story Hour and school closings for COVID.