AZ, FL - ABC/WaPo: Trump +1%, Trump +4%

[Brittain33]

This is the same pollster which had Biden +16 in Minnesota.

Either you believe both sets of polls, or you believe both are equally capable of being outliers.

I’ll go with “throw them all in the average” since it’s a reputable pollster and hope that they’re both outliers or the LV screen is making assumptions that I hope are not true.

[Brittain33]

Just saw that this AZ poll has Biden up 13 points in Maricopa County. It's mathematically impossible for him to Maricopa County by that margin and lose the state.

Not if he does much better with rural Hispanics and the Native vote which is certainly possible.

The numbers available with rural Hispanics and the Native vote are an order of magnitude less than what’s needed to overcome a 13 point lead in Maricopa.

[Brittain33]

After Truman surprised Dewey in 1948 the GOP picked a really likable war hero as its candidate in 1952

After the Trump surprise of 2016 the Democrats pick a 77 year old had not been making headway in his campaign to win this The Democrat nomination and and sinking into dementia as it nominee.
Do you see the disconnect with logical expectations.

Do you not understand that pollsters might have a problem determining turn out.

I do understand that there may be enough hate and disgust with Trump to possibly defeat Him But do you not understand that there is a possibility you will not get the turnout to defeat him.  Do you not understand some who say they will vote for him might not turn out.

Nothing personal, but can I ask why you don't use question marks?

[Brittain33]

FL margin sounds right.

Interesting—this poll is a clear outlier compared to other FL polls, and a stronger result than Republicans had in 2016 or 2018. Why does this feel right to you?