MN: Harper Polling (R) - Biden +3

[Brittain33]

Minnesota is a tossup.

If we had a poll showing SC at Trump +3, I wouldn’t call that a tossup.

[Brittain33]

Minnesota is a tossup.

If we had a poll showing SC at Trump +3, I wouldn’t call that a tossup.

How exactly are MN and SC comparable in terms of their partisan lean relative to the entire nation? I don’t even think MN is a Tossup (it would be in a better environment for the party, but not in a +8-9 D one), but people are exaggerating how much less winnable MN is for Republicans compared to WI/MI/PA. I’d rate all of them Lean D.

SC is far more Republican than MN of course, but it’s R+8, it looks like a D+7 year, and it’s comparable to MN as a state that hasn’t voted for the opposing party in decades and where you could make a weak argument it might tip over... but a +3 lead for the opposing party in a same-party internal does not make it a “tossup.”

Anyway, I agree with you mostly, I think a case can be made for Lean D given uncertainty around the state.

[Brittain33]

Minnesota is a tossup.

If we had a poll showing SC at Trump +3, I wouldn’t call that a tossup.

Trump won South Carolina by 14 points. Clinton won Minnesota won by 1.5 points.

The U.S. is swinging 5-8 points to the left from 2016 to 2020, making Minnesota and South Carolina equally distant from the 50-50 mark.

Any other argument that MN is special and is a toss-up based on a D+3 in an R internal would rely on a magical concept of "momentum" where Trump rising (possibly) to Biden +3 means that he can keep coasting up and over Biden's numbers, which is not how elections work.

In reality, both Minnesota and South Carolina have shown themselves to have low ceilings for one of the parties.

[Brittain33]

Minnesota is a tossup.

If we had a poll showing SC at Trump +3, I wouldn’t call that a tossup.

Trump won South Carolina by 14 points. Clinton won Minnesota won by 1.5 points.

The U.S. is swinging 5-8 points to the left from 2016 to 2020, making Minnesota and South Carolina equally distant from the 50-50 mark.

Any other argument that MN is special and is a toss-up based on a D+3 in an R internal would rely on a magical concept of "momentum" where Trump rising (possibly) to Biden +3 means that he can keep coasting up and over Biden's numbers, which is not how elections work.

In reality, both Minnesota and South Carolina have shown themselves to have low ceilings for one of the parties.

Ah yes if you think it's going to be a mini landslide for Biden and the race is locked in with a big Biden lead similar to Obama '08, then I guess maybe South Carolina could be as competitive as Minnesota.

I think a big Biden win is possible, but nothing is locked and I think looking at the 2016 map for the incumbent is at least as reasonable as looking at a myriad of polls. And I don't think the 1.5 2016 margin in Minnesota can be set aside because of polls, especially in light of 2016 polls.

Let’s be clear, I agree MN is competitive. What I challenge is calling it a tossup.