Undecideds are largely female, moderate, non-white and aged 18-29 + 30-44 (i.e., the only age groups Hegar/West are winning). Trump +1 would likely be enough for Cornyn to hold on, but I really don’t buy that this one isn’t going to be close or that Cornyn is heavily favored even if Ernst loses.
Then why are non-whites and young people undecided? The questioner asks whether they want to vote for, “Mary ‘MJ’ Hegar, the DEMOCRAT”. Then why don’t African-Americans* (Biden +81) and Hispanics (Biden +30) say they’ll vote for her? Could it be because they really are undecided?
Sure, Cornyn may not win by double digits. But I really can’t see Hegar getting close.
* Cornyn gets 12% of the AA vote. Trump gets 5%.
People may not commit to voting someone they've never heard of, even if they're in the same party. Hegar's still obscure and Texas is a huge state with low awareness of party politics among what would be the Democratic base. There's a reason why presidential matchups nationally had higher undecideds with Buttigieg and Klobuchar than with Sanders and Biden earlier this year.
