NY-21 Battle: Tedra Cobb Raises $800K+

[Brittain33]

Stefanik’s biggest asset was the absence of a target on her back. She really did not need a wel-funded challenger. She would have cruised to re-election if she hadn’t gone all in for Trump lies this week.

[Brittain33]

The category Likely R exists because we need to distinguish NY-21 from districts which:

1. Have not voted for any Democratic President in recent memory
2. Lack a viable or funded Democratic challenger

Stefanik may be in great shape, but she’s not Liz Cheney, and slapping the label “Safe” on the district is ignoring the distinction.

[Brittain33]

The category Likely R exists because we need to distinguish NY-21 from districts which:

1. Have not voted for any Democratic President in recent memory
2. Lack a viable or funded Democratic challenger

Stefanik may be in great shape, but she’s not Liz Cheney, and slapping the label “Safe” on the district is ignoring the distinction.

So VA-10 isn't safe then, because it voted for Romney and the NRCC will waste money there?

I’d be happy with Likely D for that district, yes. It’s just very unlikely the macro environment will favor House Republicans which would be a necessary criterion for the seat to flip. We also know this district could flip back in 2022 if it doesn’t change its lines and it’s a Dem midterm.