2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2

[Brittain33]

The lack of polling leaked from this district suggests there’s very little room for an upset, but the difference between incumbent Stephen Lynch’s haul and his challenger’s is notable:

https://mobile.twitter.com/AsInMarx/status/1283629786447970304

Lynch’s views on gays were irritating 15-20 years ago but he’s either matured or shut up about it as his old “lane” in Massachusetts politics has gone from the widest one to a narrow one, one among many. He could be surprised some year but I don’t think this is the year or the challenger. Maybe after redistricting.

[Brittain33]

I just saw that Harley Rouda (CA-48) challenged Michelle Steel to 8 debates, and she hasn’t responded. I wonder if he benefited more than most CA Dems from the quality of the incumbent he was challenging and this seat snaps back.

[Brittain33]

I just saw that Harley Rouda (CA-48) challenged Michelle Steel to 8 debates, and she hasn’t responded. I wonder if he benefited more than most CA Dems from the quality of the incumbent he was challenging and this seat snaps back.

I also saw this. the usual rule is that if you call for a superfluous number of debates, you are concerned about your internals - either down or consistently tied.  

I feel like if Rouda was behind or tied, we would have seen a poll from Republicans by now.

Haha, maybe he’s just exceptionally civic-minded. Or freaked out by CA25, which he shouldn’t be in a presidential year.

[Brittain33]

Iowa should still be Lean R.

I thought there were at least two polls with Ernst trailing Greenfield.

[Brittain33]

Iowa should still be Lean R.

I thought there were at least two polls with Ernst trailing Greenfield.

Polling in Iowa systematically underestimates the GOP. Remember when Reynolds was trailing Hubbell?

That may be true, but that’s an argument for it to be Toss-Up, not Lean R.

[Brittain33]

Katko holds a Lean D district because voters are engaged and know him and his name.
Garcia holds a Lean R turning Toss-Up district because of low engagement in a special election, and might hold it.

[Brittain33]

No one has been able to come close to Lynch before. I would be very surprised if this is the year. Lynch can certainly piggyback on the Kennedy campaign for turnout.

[Brittain33]

The latest WSJ poll had Biden +9, but the GCB was only D +5. Why do you guys think that is?

My guess: Voters see Biden as a sure bet to win, but want Republicans in Congress to "check" him. Idiots.

The problem is that this is a change of +1 for Democrats in the WSJ/NBC poll since 1 month ago. The GCB isn't tightening for this pollster.  

To be fair, the average has tightened a point or two from where it was 1-2 months ago, back to what it was when COVID started. Perhaps it's the absence of mass protests and rioting?

[Brittain33]

NBC news/WSJ has the GCB at only D+5. It's clearly tightening, which is very worrying. Trump is winning the messaging war.

NBC News/WSJ was D+4 one month ago.

[Brittain33]

NBC news/WSJ has the GCB at only D+5. It's clearly tightening, which is very worrying. Trump is winning the messaging war.

Suburbs are coming back for downballot republicans, because they want a check for Biden if he were to become president; just like they did in 2016 with Clinton.

Except this poll showed a +1 increase for Democrats in the GCB over last month’s poll. Sorry.

[Brittain33]

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1295697119005859841

Club for Growth = (R) poll?

[Brittain33]

https://twitter.com/AsInMarx/status/1296523710506110981

I'm going to go ahead and be bold with this one: Goldstein pulls this out.

Lynch had $1.6m cash on hand after March (I didn't find more recent numbers in a short search).

The same unions who endorsed and are working for JKIII will be supporting Lynch in the primary.

[Brittain33]

MA-04 D primary poll!

https://jewishinsider.com/2020/08/auchincloss-and-mermell-are-neck-and-neck-in-new-massachusetts-4th-poll/
RABA Research/Jewish Insider

Ugh, QAnon will be all over this one.

[Brittain33]

I wonder if Pete Sessions is weighed down by #MAGA hating Jeff Sessions and not knowing the difference.

[Brittain33]

PA Generic Ballot (Monmouth)

Competitive seats (PA-1/7/8/10/16/17)
Republican 50% (+7)
Democratic 40% (-8)

Well, that is surprising, even counting for 16 and 10 being Republican leaning seats to begin with.

Biden went to Pittsburgh to give his anti-riot speech. Perhaps he had polling showing the same.

[Brittain33]

That's good - doesn't he have stage 4 cancer?

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1312130875564277761?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%...

[Brittain33]

So Harrison beat the old quarterly record by just under $20 million? Wow, people hate Lindsey Graham even more than they hate Ted Cruz.

It was all his reaction to RBG's passing. If the Republicans hadn't jumped on the vacancy so swiftly and deliberately you wouldn't have had millions of Democratic manage their grief and anger with ActBlue.

[Brittain33]

LOL!!!! MN-01 is not flipping even in a double digit popular vote win.

In his interview with the WaPo yesterday, Wasserman explicitly named southern Minnesota as a region where he's seen more Dem gains among non-college white voters than the average. He cited the Iron Range as a counter-example where Trump is still doing well with them. So this is a case where his shift is informed by specific information.

(editing to add "counter" to example to head off well-meaning people correcting me that the Iron Range isn't in southern Minnesota)

[Brittain33]

I'm kinda shocked NM-02 is so high up.

The list is RDRDRDRDRD which sounds way too cute and clever to be realistic.

[Brittain33]

As if no one could have predicted this, the 538 GCB average is virtually what it was in 2018.

2018 final avg: D+8.7
2020 avg right now: D+8.6

That's so funny given how a modest gap has persisted for some weeks between the two.