How about a dead person defeating John Ashcroft in 2000?
Carnahan was leading in the polls after the crash
but he was dead for weeks before election day.
and Bush WON Missouri by 3.
Plenty of states had tons of ticket splitting at the federal level in 2000, so the fact Bush narrowly won Missouri while Carnahan won by the same amount isn’t special in its own right
BUT
HE
WAS
DEAD
dead people winning over alive people is an upset period
It was widely known and understood that voting for Mel Carnahan was a vote for his widow.