GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[Brittain33]

and ? the goal is not to beat trump, the goal is to get 50%+

A goal is to get 50%+. That would have been amazing, and few people projected it here.

If he's scoring at 48 or 49%, that's a very good position to be in heading into the runoff. Better than the low 40s showing in the polls where he'd never make up the gap to 50.

[Brittain33]

Great, now the #GA06 feed on Twitter is getting opportunistic porn ads along with the "suck it, snowflake" posts from MAGA trolls.

[Brittain33]

What % of the vote did Clinton get in this district?

46.8%

Points to Ossoff ending at 48% unless Fulton's behavior changes in ways Dekalb's and Cobb's didn't since November.

[Brittain33]

Dems got 8 mil (95% out of district) and every possible liberla hollywood actor/actress to descend on the district and are barely improving from the general election.

as we know, actors are totally influencing races, only taking the backseat to newspaper endorsements.

A district once represented by Newt Gingrich is notoriously seduced by glamour and good looks

[Brittain33]

If Dem candidates get more votes than total Repub candidates, wouldn't the Dem be favored in a runoff?

50/50.. don't forget that some voters are going to die... 2 months it's long...

Do you see Trump's situation improving over the next two months?

[Brittain33]

Dems got 8 mil (95% out of district) and every possible liberla hollywood actor/actress to descend on the district and are barely improving from the general election.

as we know, actors are totally influencing races, only taking the backseat to newspaper endorsements.

A district once represented by Newt Gingrich is notoriously seduced by glamour and good looks

Isakson is quite a looker as well.

Once you go Price, you'll never think twice

[Brittain33]

Also a lot of GOP posters are assuming all GOP votes will go to Handel (which, might not be true - people could stay home or cast their ballot for Ossoff [far less likely])

Handel is disliked by the Bob Gray crowd, his entire campaign was attacking her. I could see some of them staying home as well as some of Judson Hill's crew.

I have to imagine that any Republican with ambition would rather be running against Ossoff in 2018 or 2020 rather than see Handel win.

[Brittain33]

Is there a reason why everyone is digging Ossoff's grave? My initial prediction was 43% for him... then 45-46%, now it looks like he'll get around 48%. Is it that implausible that he could get 2% more than that in a run-off?

The outstanding territory isn't favorable for him to get over 50.

[Brittain33]

If Dem candidates get more votes than total Repub candidates, wouldn't the Dem be favored in a runoff?

If Ossoff comes in under 50%, more than likely (given how small the other D candidates are getting) the GOP will have exceeded 50% when all added up--and the Democrats don't seem to like showing up to the polls for runoff elections.

Don't you think the rules about Dem enthusiasm aren't applying as usual in 2016? Also, there are independent candidates in the mix (albeit at tiny numbers.)

[Brittain33]

If Dem candidates get more votes than total Repub candidates, wouldn't the Dem be favored in a runoff?

50/50.. don't forget that some voters are going to die... 2 months it's long...

Do you see Trump's situation improving over the next two months?

no but Ossoff is going to be demolished by the gop machine. This guy is a paper tiger.

I agree in theory that Ossoff shouldn't be a strong candidate, even if he has natural talent.

But when the national environment is heavily tilted against one party, those attacks don't tend to stick unless the candidate is a sad-sack like Busby in California. They haven't worked so far.

[Brittain33]

Is there a reason why everyone is digging Ossoff's grave? My initial prediction was 43% for him... then 45-46%, now it looks like he'll get around 48%. Is it that implausible that he could get 2% more than that in a run-off?

The outstanding territory isn't favorable for him to get over 50.

Yeah, but we also can't assume that every single Republican who voted this time will vote for Handel in the runoff.  The vast, vast majority will, but one or two percent could make the difference.

My bad, I misread your post as talking about tonight. I agree, I actually think he's in quite good shape for the runoff—better than 50% chance of winning.

[Brittain33]

If Dem candidates get more votes than total Repub candidates, wouldn't the Dem be favored in a runoff?

50/50.. don't forget that some voters are going to die... 2 months it's long...

Do you see Trump's situation improving over the next two months?

no but Ossoff is going to be demolished by the gop machine. This guy is a paper tiger.

I agree in theory that Ossoff shouldn't be a strong candidate, even if he has natural talent.

But when the national environment is heavily tilted against one party, those attacks don't tend to stick unless the candidate is a sad-sack like Busby in California. They haven't worked so far.

because republicans were infighting

That means that their numbers should go down with the runoff, not up. Everyone got to vote for his own candidate this time.

[Brittain33]

Klartext, it's cool you're feeling good this morning about Ossoff going to a runoff. As a gloom and doom Dem myself, I'm feeling pretty pumped about what happened and bullish on the runoff, and I'll tell you why.

Last November, the Republicans ran a Presidential candidate who was comically bad for this district and had no campaign apparatus, and he fell up to fifteen points behind recent Republican candidates for President and House. Remember, Romney won this district by over 20 points.

Last night, Republicans had the chance to vote for any of eleven candidates representing every possible position on the Republican spectrum. These were well known candidates with reputations, local connections, and machines they could turn on to churn out votes. And they, too, fell twenty points behind the margin past Republicans got, barely outpacing a single Generic Democrat with no district ties and no machine other than the Democratic tsunami which spontaneously arose behind his candidacy.

Historically it can take 10-20 years for flukish Presidential results to translate downballot. Look at all the D congressmen in the House who held on for 30 years after Reagan swept their districts in 1980.

You can celebrate, and maybe you will be proven right, but the well of liberal tears for you to quaff is dry this morning. We're feeling pretty damn good.

[Brittain33]

It's like some here do not know that there is a run-off.

[Brittain33]

There you see the vulnerability of the Cook PVI. It was won in November by ONE point and that's the state of the district we are looking at now.

Nope, Price won it by 20 points or more. The Republican candidate on the ballot is a well-known Republican officeholder in the district, not a lying racebaiter who brags about assaulting women. That's the state of the district we are looking at now.

[Brittain33]

Treating Hillary's numbers as if they are the Democratic floor is laughable, but nice spin everyone.

[Brittain33]

So Spicer now got up an called this an "big loss" for the dems and repeated that "spent 8 million" lie. Quick question why is Trump keeping throwing bombs on stuff like this when by his own admission he needs dems for his infrastructure plan?

He can't help himself. It's what the Cable News hosts are talking about, and he has to respond.

[Brittain33]

I was mad at hell at Bernie through most of 2016, but his statement here is pretty accurate (if unhelpful).

[Brittain33]

Anyone who thinks MS will tip quietly into the Democratic column because of demographic change should consider the state's history as a majority-black state and what the NC GOP has done in response to a similar situation. It's not going to "be allowed" to happen.

[Brittain33]

Ossoff just challenged Handel to six debates before the runoff.

Huh. I have to suppress my reaction that this is what likely losers do and just take it at face value.

[Brittain33]

Now that he has been outed as a far-left type, though

Welcome to Atlas!

[Brittain33]

Ossoff campaign is registering 100 new voters a day.

https://twitter.com/PoliticsWolf/status/860557563427000321

https://www.thenation.com/article/georgia-cant-block-new-voters-from-registering-in-the-ossoff-handel-runoff/

[Brittain33]

To be clear, the 559,000 or so new voters are in all of Georgia, of which the 100+ a day are by Ossoff's campaign.

[Brittain33]

Republicans concerned about the competitiveness of this race. Nothing here we haven't seen. There's an indication that her need to fundraise aggressively is keeping her off the campaign trail.

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/article149203079.html

[Brittain33]

New attack ad calls Ossoff "San Francisco's Congressman"

Wow, that's the sickest burn of 1986.