Cook: Private OH polls "ugly" for Romney

[Brittain33]

Breitbart.org is a straight-up propaganda outlet, so no, unsourced tweets about internal polls from the group that frames Shirley Sherrod isn't something to make anyone upset.

[Brittain33]

Breitbart.org is a straight-up propaganda outlet, so no, unsourced tweets about internal polls from the group that frames Shirley Sherrod isn't something to make anyone upset.

We should then regard Cook as such. 

J.J., it's up to you if you want to compare the reputations of Charlie Cook and Breitbart.org as equals. Knock yourself out.

[Brittain33]

Breitbart.org is a straight-up propaganda outlet, so no, unsourced tweets about internal polls from the group that frames Shirley Sherrod isn't something to make anyone upset.

We should then regard Cook as such.  

J.J., it's up to you if you want to compare the reputations of Charlie Cook and Breitbart.org as equals. Knock yourself out.

Were the two varying sets of internal polls taken at the same time?  Beitbart in this instance is a mere conduit. I assume that the alleged Romney internals are not made up, but were released to him.

The problem is, we don't know how to evaluate Breitbart and his sources. Maybe it was an authorized leak from the Romney campaign providing accurate numbers. Maybe the leak was from a random PR person in the Romney campaign, or maybe it was made up (Breitbart does that). Charlie Cook, love him or loathe him, has a reputation that Breitbart doesn't, because they are in the propaganda and agitation business, and have in the past released doctored and edited videos as "proof" of allegations that turned out to be 180% backward. I trust you're aware of what they did to Shirley Sherrod.

I don't know if these internal polls are accurate or not, nor do I claim insight into the state of play, but to compare Cook to Breitbart, one has to deal with:

• Cook citing polls from both sides, Breitbart only citing from one side
• Cook having a reputation to defend as being unbiased, Breitbart having a checkered history with the truth and with the goal of providing Republican talking points
• The interest both the Romney campaign, whether on high or in the trenches, plus Breitbart, to create a momentum story
• So far, the lack of corroboration from anyone more credible
• The fact that the only reason we can accept that these don't pass the smell test but not reject them out of hand is the unreliability of any numbers we'd use for comparison - while it's really hard to accept a swing of 10+ points in Romney's favor, the lack of independent polling means we can't 100% discount it

To me, this all argues against "well, it's just like Cook."

[Brittain33]

BTW, Breitbart himself is deceased, but his web site is carried on by lesser lights who follow his general approach. Kind of like those bands that tour as The Four Tops.

Anyway, this is a roundabout way of saying who knows what polls are showing about Romney's bounce, but a tweet from Breitbart has as much credibility as a check from Drew Pritt.

[Brittain33]

Do you remember Drew baby from that other website, back in his TN/Arkansas incarnations?  In a bizarre way, he kind of reminds me of one of our more high profile posters. 

Ooh, I'd never made that connection before.

[Brittain33]

If the Breitbart tweet is true we will know fairly soon as it has major implications and would result in specific actions. If Romney's internal polls had truly shown a 10 point shift in the polls, then this would be huge news that they would want to get out to help reshape the narrative. They would want to get this info out to more mainstream media outlets. By Monday morning Politico.com should be reporting on this as they  have often reported on internal Romney polling and shifts before.

It would also be a complete realignment of the map. With information like that Team Romney should have a huge lead in NC and could stop spending there (the same way they arent spending in MO and IN). It would also put states like MI, PA, MN and NM into play, so we should also expect Romney to start spending in some or all of those states within the next week as well. These shifts in money would also be reported fairly soon.

And then of course we should also see these things reflected in the public polling as well.

Anyone here want to place bets on if all these corroborating things will come to pass in the next few days?

That's where I am. I'm open to a wide range of outcomes from Romney casting off his loser image and wouldn't even judge if the bounce is temporary or long-lived. I keep analogizing this year to 2004, and what happened then was Kerry narrowed a big lead to 2 points and then stayed 2 points behind. I should expect Romney to bounce significantly. But Obama was so solidly ahead in so many of his firewall states like Ohio, it strains credulity. Like if Gore suddenly polled +5 in NC or Colorado. It just doesn't make sense unless you're trying to do a head fake or try to gin up momentum from nothing.

[Brittain33]

You seem really hung up on the Shirley Sherrod thing... you should know that the video was "doctored" by the NAACP not Breitbart.   

Well, yes, I'm "hung up" on it because it was a clearcut case of Breitbart behaving dishonestly toward someone who was being unequivocally good on a contentious issue, and when it was revealed that he'd misused the tape, he did not acknowledge his error but doubled down on it. The Shirely Sherrod case is an unusual one in that the moral test was clear and he failed. If you're familiar with the history of Sherrod's family and her behavior and not angry about how she was treated by Breitbart, by his Republican amplifiers, and by Obama administration officials who cut her loose, you're a morally hobbled person.

[Brittain33]

J.J., I'm familiar with your point of view on Ohio and your view of that PPP poll.