CBO Estimates That Only 1.2 Percent of Americans Will Pay Obamacare Penalty

[Brittain33]

"Largest middle class tax hike in the history of the U.S." never passed the smell test.

[Brittain33]

"Largest middle class tax hike in the history of the U.S." never passed the smell test.

Yes, the claim was and is ludicrous (why do politicians insult our intelligence this way?), but you can see why Obamacare is destined to collapse fiscally, for this and a host of other reasons.

No, I don't. Tell me more.

[Brittain33]

The important number isn't how many people will pay the penalty, but how many people would be subject to the penalty if they did not buy health insurance. I heard on NPR today that number estimated at about 40%.

40% of what? The number of people without insurance is far, far less than 40%.

[Brittain33]

I think they meant that 40% of people would be subject to it if they don't have health insurance. The other 60% either don't make enough income or have some other circumstance that makes them exempt.

Yes but that is 40% of the currently uninsured are subject to it, which means it is like 10% overall. So apparently the CBO is estimating 9 out of 10 of them will buy insurance and the rest will pay the penalty.

Bottom line is that all the people screaming about this "tax" are likely already covered and therefore not subject to the mandate or the penalty. The new myth that is being perpetuated is that everyone is going to have to pay some new tax in 2014.

I hadn't heard that myth, but maybe I don't watch enough Fox News.

Anyway, at this point it's far from clear that there are even going to be more people with health insurance after this is implemented, let alone that many more. It will be more available for people who need it on a chronic basis, but for those who are currently healthy it's going to be both more expensive and less necessary. The penalty makes a difference, but maybe not enough to outweigh that.

Absolutely there will be more people with insurance. That's been the experience with Romneycare, and this is a state that started with a relatively low rate of noninsurance.