Is this election over? (April 2012)

[Brittain33]

There's some discussion on the polling board as to whether this election is over or not. People think Romney is not positioned to defeat Obama.

I think we can all agree that even if Romney were a terrible candidate instead of simply a mediocre candidate, given the state of the economy and that Obama's human, conditions could enable him to win. So I'm setting the bar for "over" at 10% chance of winning. Which means that, given the normal course of events, no surprises or dramatic life-changing events, Romney basically has no way to win this election under his own control.

What do you think?

[Brittain33]

I'd put his chances at 25%. Not hopeless, not even ridiculous, but I don't see it coming together under most cases, and I think he's at a down point right now and has some highs ahead of him.

[Brittain33]

Mitt 'Goldwater' Romney.

At least we'll finally stop hearing about Goldwater-esque margins when we can have Romney-esque margins.

What state that McCain lost will Romney lose? Based on Obama's campaign offices, he's not expecting any state to flip, and counting on Indiana to be gone.

[Brittain33]

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This conservative isn't. He simply doesn't represent me.

Obama will say or do something between now and November that will make you vote for Romney. I guarantee it.