I wonder if there is any difference between the accuracy of polling in a race with candidates and in a ballot initiative? I remember reading a piece a few years ago (I can't remember where) about Rasmussen Reports that suggested its issue polling was far worse than its polling of candidates (of course in 2010 the latter proved to be rather awful as well).
Oh, I think there must be. The same way there is a difference between primary polling and general election polling... most voters in a general election poll are committed to a party and won't change, so the potential for swings is constained. Voters in a primary could choose among any candidates, and with a referendum, not only do you have choices somewhat disconnected from parties, but often people don't even understand the issue at stake. I can guarantee that some people answering this question gave the exact opposite of what they meant to say because of the wording.
