What's Going On In PA?!

[Brittain33]

The double-digit lead is as believable as Sestak's lead...

There isn't a double digit lead now but he clearly had one (or close to a double digit lead) a few weeks ago confirmed by basically every poll.

My point is:if you could trust the 8% lead before based on polls alone,why wouldn't you believe that now it's basically a tossup?

Because there wasn't any reason for the shift. Such a major shift doesn't happen without a reason.

Obama rally in Philadelphia, Democrats coming home in the final weeks of the campaign, some campaign ad resonating. It could be a lot of movement among fickle undecideds rather than voters actively shifting from Toomey to Sestak.

[Brittain33]

I wonder what the exact numbers were for '08 and '06. I don't trust Democratic operatives to present an objective view. From that article: "Democrats note that absentee ballot totals have favored Republicans in each of the past two cycles, although the edge was smaller than it appears to be this year. "