WA-09/SurveyUSA: Rep. Adam Smith (D) is in trouble

[Brittain33]

I'll say one thing, this election is either going to make SUSA's reputation in Washington State for detecting a massive Republican wave or it's going to leave egg on their faces. They're internally consistent for state polls here, it seems like.

The next poll will have Jay Inslee up 5% and below 50%, I expect.

[Brittain33]

What to trust, an actual election result or a sketchy SUSA poll? Hmmmmmmm....

Seeing as how they are virtually in agreement, the choice seems rather unnecessary.

Considering that Smith had a 6 point lead with a Green (probably) playing spoiler, and a combined vote total of Republican candidates, it's safe to say that Smith is probably up by more. The general electorate will probably be more Democratic than the primary electorate as well.

     Point taken, though it has now been over a month since the primary. It is not inconceivable that the numbers have moved since then.

ut while Murray's numbers have moved in the opposite direction?

[Brittain33]

Murray's numbers likely moved because of something Murray did, not because of the national mood. The numbers here are what they are probably because this race has not been localized—it's low enough attention that you're just getting a default set of nationalized numbers. And that's dangerous for Smith.

Well, if Murray was able to move her numbers not only against where she was but also against a countervailing shift in the state or national mood over the time, effectively doubling her movement, then Democrats who have money in the bank may have higher hopes than previously thought.