2010 Primaries Thread (It's all over now, baby blue)

[Brittain33]

A really old Dem State Senator (Douglas Henry, age 84, SD-21) is currently losing 51-49. And a Republican State House member (Eric Swafford, HD-25) is getting crushed 68-32. Anyone know what's going on with these two?

I just looked up that first race because the young guy is a FOAF (who would have no idea who I am) and it looks like it's just new energy and a more liberal issue base vs. someone who has been in office forever. The challenger is pro-choice, incumbent is pro-life.

[Brittain33]

What's going on with WA-02? The results were far closer there than I'd have expected.

Relative to Dem-held seats in WA-1, -6, and -9, it looks par for the course. That district isn't solidly Democratic.

[Brittain33]

2000 General:
50.01% Larsen (D)
45.93% Koster (R)
2.62% Stuart Andrews (R)
1.44% Glen S. Johnson (R)

As I recall, that race finished more closely for Larsen than expected. He was predicted to win by more. I recall this because 2000 was one of those years when Democrats felt like we could have won back the House and had ample opportunity in open seats like this, but Republicans won too many of the competitive open seats like MI-8 and IL-10.

[Brittain33]

Each of the three competitive AZ dems are going to lose their seats.  That is as clear as ever from the republican turnout so far in the primary.  

AZ1-30725 DEM / 55314 REP
AZ5-18230 DEM / 39687 REP
AZ8-33979 DEM / 47590 REP

A little presumptious, considering that Democrats had no primary and no reason to show up.

Huh?  They have a contested Senate primary.

Do you think it's salient that each of those seats had competitive HOUSE primaries on the Republican side, with each candidate getting out the vote, and the Democrats didn't? How much advertising did Glassman's opponent buy in each of these markets?

[Brittain33]

If the Murk does pull this off, do the Libertarians bin their candidate for Miller? That'd be fun.

Well that would be hypocritical on their part since they denied Murkowski the option.

What reasoning did they give? As some people have noted, Murkowski is pretty much the opposite of a Libertarian... Miller would be closer to their philosophy. Although it's still unlikely.

[Brittain33]

I voted Bump for Auditor because I happened to have met her and I'm more likely to vote for the experienced candidate and the woman when given a choice between two acceptable options. (Glodis was not acceptable.) Unfortunately this led me to supporting Coakley last fall, but what can you do.

Grossman for Auditor because he was the only competent one running.

I skipped Governor's Council. I don't think we had an incumbent.

[Brittain33]

I didn't vote.  Does Capuano even have a primary challenger?

No.

[Brittain33]

54-31, to be specific. And Manchester is the largest city in New Hampshire.

Edit: And Stephen's getting 74% there, so he's not in any trouble.

Lamontagne is from Manchester. Ayotte lives in Nashua.

[Brittain33]

Isn't Ayotte a French name? She doesn't have the Frenchier-than-thou first name, though.

[Brittain33]

How long has it been since the three seats most likely to turn over were Delaware, Nevada, and Connecticut? A year?

[Brittain33]

In other news, Barbara Bush will be the Republican nominee for a state senate seat in Boston, Cambridge, and Everett. LOL.

[Brittain33]

[Brittain33]

[Brittain33]

David Cicilline will become the third openly-gay individual to be elected to Congress should he win in November.

Of the four openly gay members of the House, two and a half will be Jewish.

[Brittain33]

are you referring black people as monkeys?

Yes, he is, and since it gets attention and apparently doesn't run afoul of site policies, it's something we just have to live with.

[Brittain33]

These primary results are not encouraging for him. He got killed on the Cape, whereas Perry tied on the South Shore. If it is regional, Perry might be in good shape.

Can you read intraprimary regional splits onto interparty contests? Why would any Democrat on the cape vote for Keating? I'm asking sincerely. Malone isn't a regional candidate the way Perry, Keating, and O'Leary were and unlike O'Leary he pulled few votes. I guess I'm asking whether O'Leary's strength is being misinterpreted as Keating's weaknesses.

[Brittain33]

Beet, if Coons isn't a shoo-in, then the voters of this country clear want massive right-wing majorities in the House and Senate with any number of crazies in the mix and there's no point in us losing sleep over it.

[Brittain33]

Up until now, I've been reading Norfolk County and yet visualizing Plymouth County as his base. Ugh.

[Brittain33]

Nashua is coming in, 47-30 for Ayotte.

That is the anti tax commuter to Boston area jobs, and was the area Romney was strongest in, FWIW.

My unscientific read on the numbers is that she doesn't have a strong enough regional base there to offset Monty's lead in Manchester, but there are plenty of other places that might have surprises that help her.

[Brittain33]

Nashua is coming in, 47-30 for Ayotte.

That is the anti tax commuter to Boston area jobs, and was the area Romney was strongest in, FWIW.

My unscientific read on the numbers is that she doesn't have a strong enough regional base there to offset Monty's lead in Manchester, but there are plenty of other places that might have surprises that help her.

Londonderry is a suburb on I-93 just north of Nashua and it went to Lamontagne by a small margin.

[Brittain33]

Concord is in, 10/10, and voted very narrowly for Ayotte. I'm not seeing her closing the gap, there is no big city left to suddenly dump a big margin of votes in her lap.

[Brittain33]

Yeah, sure, laugh. Treat Coons as a shoo-in. Know who else did that? Massachusetts Democrats with Martha Coakley.

The arrogance of people like you will be what gets that crazy bitch elected. We'll see who's laughing then - I guarantee America won't.

This is the second time I've seen someone seriously compare Christine O'Donnell to Scott Brown on this board. Get a hold of yourself, man. You don't know what you're saying.

[Brittain33]

Concord is in, 10/10, and voted very narrowly for Ayotte. I'm not seeing her closing the gap, there is no big city left to suddenly dump a big margin of votes in her lap.

Nashua's all in?

Nashua is 2/3 in and the remaining 3 precincts would have to be much more favorable to Ayotte than the previous 6 were.

[Brittain33]

But the margin in NH is only 2,000 votes (she has a 750-vote lead in Nashua with 6/9 precincts) with 3/4 of the precincts out... so I really shouldn't be making any predictions. Nor is this race worth my staying up. I'll see in the morning.

[Brittain33]

Yes, I do. I'm saying that if O'Donnell could win a primary against Mike Castle, she can win a general against Chris Coons, who has such pathetic name recognition. What can I say? I'm terrified of seeing O'Donnell actually get elected.

Scott Brown was appealing to all Republicans, most moderates, and some Democrats. They wanted to vote for him.

In your heart of hearts, do you think Christine O'Donnell is going to win over all those groups in Delaware? If so, why? People win primaries all the time who are unelectable in the general precisely because of the strengths that won them the primary.