This Election Is (Probably) Over

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Overreacting, dude.  Hold off on the defeatist talk until October; besides, things look good for Obama.  He's competing against McCain in more Bush states than vice versa, and that fundraising lead will show up evetnually.  Be patient.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

You know, if a candidate loses, the next day, people here will be arguing the guy who lost couldn't have won, for reasons XY and Z.  It's a natural instinct, and it's wrong.  At this current moment, either McCain or Obama could win.  John Kerry could've won in 2004, and the Democrats' recent spate of "Bush couldn't be beat in 2004" are a way of emotionally distancing themselves from the pain of having such an important race slip through their fingers.

With the possible exception of Bob Dole, every major party candidate in the last 20 years could have won, and so could have Perot if he had played his cards right.

I think Dole could've won in '96, too.

Is that map so hard to see?

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Duke, my map was for '08; this is how Dole wins in '96:

And that is, of course, a stretch.